Comparing EverForecast to the South Florida Water Management District’s Position Analysis
USGS will compare the EverForecast hydrologic forecast, the South Florida Water Management District's Position Analysis, and observed water level recordings from gages located across the Everglades landscape to examine which forecast performs better during the wet and dry seasons; wet, dry, or average years; or in different areas of the Everglades.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Near-term forecasts of hydrologic conditions paired with integrated evaluation of ecological responses can help decision-makers identify management actions that balance the hydrologic needs of multiple species at once. The Everglades Forecasting application (EverForecast) provides near-term hydrologic forecasts across the freshwater part of the Everglades. The hydrologic forecasting methodology of the EverForecast application does not integrate system operations, but instead provides a full range of possible future conditions independent of water management schedules. In contrast, the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) produces a Position Analysis that mechanistically and physically attempts to reflect expected operational practice over the forecast period. Natural resource managers have expressed a need to compare the EverForecast and SFWMD hydrologic forecasts to examine how the outputs differ and how those differences, in turn, influence managers’ decision-making. EverForecast can be accessed at jem.gov/everforecast.
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: USGS will compare the EverForecast hydrologic forecast and the SFWMD Position Analysis. Due to differences in the methods (e.g., period of record, operational constraints, rainfall forecasts), we will not be able to attribute differences only to operations. In addition to comparing the forecasts to each other, we will compare hindcast water levels from both EverForecast and the SFWMD forecast to the observed water level recordings from gages located across the Everglades landscape. We will use this comparison to examine questions such as which forecast performs better during the wet and dry seasons; wet, dry, or average years; or in different areas of the Everglades, among others.
Future Steps: Identifying possible differences between the hydrologic forecasts can allow natural resource managers to utilize the forecast that best suits their needs when planning for environmental change. Depending on the outcome of these comparisons, a second phase could be to integrate the two forecasts or to integrate operations into EverForecast.
Multispecies Operational Forecasting in the Florida Everglades
USGS will compare the EverForecast hydrologic forecast, the South Florida Water Management District's Position Analysis, and observed water level recordings from gages located across the Everglades landscape to examine which forecast performs better during the wet and dry seasons; wet, dry, or average years; or in different areas of the Everglades.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Near-term forecasts of hydrologic conditions paired with integrated evaluation of ecological responses can help decision-makers identify management actions that balance the hydrologic needs of multiple species at once. The Everglades Forecasting application (EverForecast) provides near-term hydrologic forecasts across the freshwater part of the Everglades. The hydrologic forecasting methodology of the EverForecast application does not integrate system operations, but instead provides a full range of possible future conditions independent of water management schedules. In contrast, the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) produces a Position Analysis that mechanistically and physically attempts to reflect expected operational practice over the forecast period. Natural resource managers have expressed a need to compare the EverForecast and SFWMD hydrologic forecasts to examine how the outputs differ and how those differences, in turn, influence managers’ decision-making. EverForecast can be accessed at jem.gov/everforecast.
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: USGS will compare the EverForecast hydrologic forecast and the SFWMD Position Analysis. Due to differences in the methods (e.g., period of record, operational constraints, rainfall forecasts), we will not be able to attribute differences only to operations. In addition to comparing the forecasts to each other, we will compare hindcast water levels from both EverForecast and the SFWMD forecast to the observed water level recordings from gages located across the Everglades landscape. We will use this comparison to examine questions such as which forecast performs better during the wet and dry seasons; wet, dry, or average years; or in different areas of the Everglades, among others.
Future Steps: Identifying possible differences between the hydrologic forecasts can allow natural resource managers to utilize the forecast that best suits their needs when planning for environmental change. Depending on the outcome of these comparisons, a second phase could be to integrate the two forecasts or to integrate operations into EverForecast.