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Model outputs and model code for machine learning models forecasting streamflow drought across the Conterminous United States

September 22, 2025

We applied machine learning (ML) models to forecast streamflow drought from 1 to 13 weeks into the future at more than 3,000 streamgage locations across the Conterminous United States. We applied two machine learning methods (long short-term memory [LSTM] neural network; light gradient boosting [LightGBM] machine) and two benchmark model approaches (persistence; autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA]) to predict weekly streamflow percentiles with independent models for each forecast horizon. Both ML models were trained using all percentiles (LSTM-all, LightGBM-all) and only percentiles below 30% (LSTM

Publication Year 2025
Title Model outputs and model code for machine learning models forecasting streamflow drought across the Conterminous United States
DOI 10.5066/P132NSWY
Authors John C Hammond, Aaron J Heldmyer, Jeremy A Diaz, Phillip J Goodling, Ryan R McShane
Product Type Data Release
Record Source USGS Asset Identifier Service (AIS)
USGS Organization Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center - Helena Office
Rights This work is marked with CC0 1.0 Universal
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