Rallus elegans (King Rail) occupancy is stable, but habitat is in short supply in the Arkansas Delta

Secretive marsh birds experienced precipitous declines due to losses in wetland habitat across North America. However, from 1998 to 2004, wetland area increased, and between 2009 and 2019, the extent of emergent wetlands did not significantly decrease. This raises the question: how did secretive marsh birds, which are tied to emergent wetlands, respond to this period of relative stability in wetland area? Here, we use Rallus elegans (King Rail) occurrence data collected in 2005, 2006, 2012, and 2017 in the Arkansas Delta in the United States to test the hypothesis that a period of stability in wetland vegetation is linked to stable Rallus elegans occupancy. Specifically, we sought to (1) quantify relationships between R. elegans occupancy and land cover, (2) quantify temporal trends in R. elegans occupancy, and (3) characterize changes in land cover types linked to R. elegans occupancy. We developed spatial multi-season occupancy models, and our top model contained the categorical year effect but showed no trend in R. elegans occupancy between 2005 and 2017, instead showing high interannual variation in occupancy. We found strong associations between R. elegans occupancy and emergent wetlands (positive) and elevation (negative). From 2005 to 2017 in the ∼3.7 million ha Arkansas Delta, rice crop cover decreased by 294,750 ha, emergent wetlands increased by 6,719 ha, and all other cover types increased or decreased by < 7,500 ha. Thus, although emergent wetlands did increase, the total area of emergent wetlands in 2016 (22,262 ha) comprised <1% of the Arkansas Delta. Our results support the hypothesis that R. elegans occupancy stabilized during a time when the main habitat type R. elegans depend on, emergent wetlands, also stabilized in spatial extent. There is an opportunity to turn the tide in R. elegans declines by conserving extant emergent wetlands and creating new emergent wetlands.