Synthesizing professional opinion of Lake Whitefish and Cisco recruitment drivers across the Great Lakes

Disentangling the suite of ecological drivers that explain recruitment variability for Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis and Cisco C. artedi is of critical importance for their conservation, management, and stewardship in the Laurentian Great Lakes. However, recruitment is inherently variable and can be regulated by many interacting processes, the relative importance of which can vary spatially, temporally, and ontogenetically. Given this complexity, comparisons across lakes and species that identify overarching hypotheses could efficiently guide future research. Using facilitated deliberations among fishery professionals (n = 57) with expertise in Great Lakes Coregonus spp., we synthesized current knowledge regarding (1) which biophysical processes are most important for driving contemporary recruitment between species, among lakes, and across life stages and (2) mechanisms by which those drivers regulate recruitment at key life stages. Participants affirmed the hypothesis that many drivers interact in complex ways to regulate Lake Whitefish and Cisco recruitment. Large-scale climatic processes affecting early life-stage growth and survival were consistently considered important. Other drivers were only deemed influential in certain lakes, highlighting perceived context-dependent recruitment dynamics. Notably, recruitment in Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron was considered limited during larval and early juvenile life stages by low productivity, whereas spawning-habitat degradation and reduced metapopulation diversity were hypothesized to limit recruitment during embryonic and larval stages in Lakes Erie and Ontario. Several drivers were hypothesized to similarly impact Lake Whitefish and Cisco during early life stages, while drivers acting on post-larval life stages were typically distinct between species. The hypotheses synthesized herein can guide future research on Lake Whitefish and Cisco recruitment dynamics in the Great Lakes.