Developing a Decision Support Tool to Assess Carbon Sequestration on Natural Resource Conservation Service’s Wetland Reserve Easements in Kentucky and Tennessee
USGS is developing a decision support tool to help managers quantify the impact of wetland restoration on carbon sequestration in wetland reserve easements in Kentucky and Tennessee.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Since 1998, the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) has restored thousands of acres of wetland forest through wetland reserve easement (WRE) programs across the country. The restoration of agriculture land to wetland forest has had significant impacts on ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration. The objective of this project is to quantify the impact of wetland restoration on carbon sequestration in WREs in Kentucky and Tennessee.
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: Integrated models of landscape and carbon dynamics are required to forecast ecosystem carbon stocks across landscapes undergoing changes in land use/land cover and climate. We will use the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS; Sleeter et al. 2018; 2019; 2022) to estimate changes in land use/land cover and carbon sequestration within Kentucky and Tennessee wetland reserve easements (Figure 1). The LUCAS model is an open-source stochastic simulation model developed by our team that links a spatially explicit simulation model of landscape change with a carbon budget model (Figure 2). LUCAS simulates the annual changes in the carbon pools that occur due to growth, turnover, decomposition, natural disturbances, and land management.
The LUCAS carbon submodel is based on detailed field measurements in specific ecosystems, which can be used to validate and calibrate models applied at larger spatial extents. Carbon dynamics within LUCAS are represented using a system of carbon pools connected by fluxes that are driven by ecological processes, disturbances, and management actions. Forested ecosystem carbon dynamics are modeled following the approach of the CBM-CFS3 (Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector v3), an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 3 spatially referenced model of carbon stocks and fluxes (Kurz et al. 2009). Forested and herbaceous wetland carbon dynamics are modeled using USGS detailed field measurements across fresh and saline wetlands (Stagg et al. 2018). Bringing together these forest and wetland carbon models permits an integrated assessment of the impacts of past and future land management, disturbance, and climate on the storage of carbon within wetland reserve easements.
Finally, the framework provides the flexibility for decision-makers to set up “what-if” management scenarios regarding the effects of possible future changes to land-use policy. The result is a decision-support tool that generates locally responsive, meaningful, and ultimately actionable forecasts and subsequent rankings.
Future Steps: This work will allow NRCS to assess the effectiveness of the historic restoration program, as well as plan for future restoration activities. By quantifying potential carbon sequestration, managers can use carbon as a criterion for ranking and selection of future restoration projects.
Developing a Decision Support Tool to Inform Louisiana’s Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
Wetland Carbon Working Group: Improving Methodologies and Estimates of Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Flux in Wetlands
USGS is developing a decision support tool to help managers quantify the impact of wetland restoration on carbon sequestration in wetland reserve easements in Kentucky and Tennessee.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Since 1998, the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) has restored thousands of acres of wetland forest through wetland reserve easement (WRE) programs across the country. The restoration of agriculture land to wetland forest has had significant impacts on ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration. The objective of this project is to quantify the impact of wetland restoration on carbon sequestration in WREs in Kentucky and Tennessee.
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: Integrated models of landscape and carbon dynamics are required to forecast ecosystem carbon stocks across landscapes undergoing changes in land use/land cover and climate. We will use the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS; Sleeter et al. 2018; 2019; 2022) to estimate changes in land use/land cover and carbon sequestration within Kentucky and Tennessee wetland reserve easements (Figure 1). The LUCAS model is an open-source stochastic simulation model developed by our team that links a spatially explicit simulation model of landscape change with a carbon budget model (Figure 2). LUCAS simulates the annual changes in the carbon pools that occur due to growth, turnover, decomposition, natural disturbances, and land management.
The LUCAS carbon submodel is based on detailed field measurements in specific ecosystems, which can be used to validate and calibrate models applied at larger spatial extents. Carbon dynamics within LUCAS are represented using a system of carbon pools connected by fluxes that are driven by ecological processes, disturbances, and management actions. Forested ecosystem carbon dynamics are modeled following the approach of the CBM-CFS3 (Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector v3), an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 3 spatially referenced model of carbon stocks and fluxes (Kurz et al. 2009). Forested and herbaceous wetland carbon dynamics are modeled using USGS detailed field measurements across fresh and saline wetlands (Stagg et al. 2018). Bringing together these forest and wetland carbon models permits an integrated assessment of the impacts of past and future land management, disturbance, and climate on the storage of carbon within wetland reserve easements.
Finally, the framework provides the flexibility for decision-makers to set up “what-if” management scenarios regarding the effects of possible future changes to land-use policy. The result is a decision-support tool that generates locally responsive, meaningful, and ultimately actionable forecasts and subsequent rankings.
Future Steps: This work will allow NRCS to assess the effectiveness of the historic restoration program, as well as plan for future restoration activities. By quantifying potential carbon sequestration, managers can use carbon as a criterion for ranking and selection of future restoration projects.