My research activities focus on characterizing changes in land use and disturbance – past, present and future - and how they impact ecosystem carbon dynamics.
I lead two large projects which have shared goals of further developing USGS capabilities in land change science and ecosystem carbon cycling. I lead the development of the LUCAS modeling framework (Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator).
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 15
Developing a Decision Support Tool to Inform Louisiana’s Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
In 2020, Governor Edwards of Louisiana issued two executive orders: establishing the Climate Initiatives Task Force to develop the state’s first ever Climate Action Plan to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and to enhance coastal resilience in the state. Louisiana’s coastal wetlands and natural lands are of vital importance not just for hurricane protection, health and wellbeing, and...
Wetland Carbon Working Group: Improving Methodologies and Estimates of Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Flux in Wetlands
WARC researchers are working to quantify the impacts of future climate and land use/land cover change on greenhouse gas emissions and reductions.
Future Scenarios of Land Use and Land Cover Change for Integrated Resources Assessment
This research project aims to develop a portfolio approach to development of land change scenarios for the United States based on empirical data and global integrated assessment modeling.This research will continue the development and capabilities of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), which has been developed by USGS scientists for the purposes of projecting land change and its...
The LUCAS Model
Our team is developing the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS is a state-and-transition simulation model designed to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux.
Land use and tsunami hazards in the Pacific Northwest
Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes.To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents...
California land-change projections
This dataset consists of modeled projections of land use and land cover and population for the State of California for the period 1970-2101. For the 1970-2001 period, we used the USGS's LUCAS model to "backcast" LULC, beginning with the 2001 initial conditions and ending with 1970. For future projections, the model was initialized in 2001 and run forward on an annual time step to 2100. In total 5...
Land change and water use in California
Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water-use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed...
Land use and carbon modeling in the Sierra Nevada Mountains
The goal of this study was to develop an integrated, regional-scale terrestrial carbon model, which can project changes in ecosystem carbon dynamics resulting from both changing biophysical conditions (e.g. CO2 fertilization, changes in climate) and land-change processes (e.g. urbanization, agricultural intensification, wildfire, harvest).Our objective was to develop a modeling framework which...
Great Dismal Swamp carbon dynamics
The Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model was used to develop a baseline carbon (C) budget for the Great Dismal Swamp, VA., using an annualized Stock-Flow approach. The model infrastructure will be used going forward to assist with future land management and ecosystem services assessments.
National land use projections
A major scientific challenge in global change research is connecting coarse-scale global assessments, particularly those involving the projection of land use, to scales relevant and useful for analysis and management. We have downscaled land use projections from two global scenario frameworks, the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)...
Land Use and Climate Change Team
We are a research team focusing on understanding the rates, causes, and consequences of land change across a range of geographic and temporal scales. Our emphasis is on developing alternative future projections and quantifying the impact on environmental systems, in particular, the role of land-use change on ecosystem carbon dynamics. We are interested in how land-use and climate systems will...
Land Cover Trends
Land Cover Trends was a research project focused on understanding the rates, trends, causes, and consequences of contemporary U.S. land use and land cover change. The project spanned from 1999 to 2011. The research was supported by the Climate and Land Use Change Research and Development Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and was a collaborative effort with the U.S. Environmental...
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Filter Total Items: 15
Developing a Decision Support Tool to Inform Louisiana’s Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
In 2020, Governor Edwards of Louisiana issued two executive orders: establishing the Climate Initiatives Task Force to develop the state’s first ever Climate Action Plan to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and to enhance coastal resilience in the state. Louisiana’s coastal wetlands and natural lands are of vital importance not just for hurricane protection, health and wellbeing, and...Wetland Carbon Working Group: Improving Methodologies and Estimates of Carbon and Greenhouse Gas Flux in Wetlands
WARC researchers are working to quantify the impacts of future climate and land use/land cover change on greenhouse gas emissions and reductions.Future Scenarios of Land Use and Land Cover Change for Integrated Resources Assessment
This research project aims to develop a portfolio approach to development of land change scenarios for the United States based on empirical data and global integrated assessment modeling.This research will continue the development and capabilities of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), which has been developed by USGS scientists for the purposes of projecting land change and its...The LUCAS Model
Our team is developing the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS is a state-and-transition simulation model designed to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux.Land use and tsunami hazards in the Pacific Northwest
Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes.To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents...California land-change projections
This dataset consists of modeled projections of land use and land cover and population for the State of California for the period 1970-2101. For the 1970-2001 period, we used the USGS's LUCAS model to "backcast" LULC, beginning with the 2001 initial conditions and ending with 1970. For future projections, the model was initialized in 2001 and run forward on an annual time step to 2100. In total 5...Land change and water use in California
Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water-use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed...Land use and carbon modeling in the Sierra Nevada Mountains
The goal of this study was to develop an integrated, regional-scale terrestrial carbon model, which can project changes in ecosystem carbon dynamics resulting from both changing biophysical conditions (e.g. CO2 fertilization, changes in climate) and land-change processes (e.g. urbanization, agricultural intensification, wildfire, harvest).Our objective was to develop a modeling framework which...Great Dismal Swamp carbon dynamics
The Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model was used to develop a baseline carbon (C) budget for the Great Dismal Swamp, VA., using an annualized Stock-Flow approach. The model infrastructure will be used going forward to assist with future land management and ecosystem services assessments.National land use projections
A major scientific challenge in global change research is connecting coarse-scale global assessments, particularly those involving the projection of land use, to scales relevant and useful for analysis and management. We have downscaled land use projections from two global scenario frameworks, the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)...Land Use and Climate Change Team
We are a research team focusing on understanding the rates, causes, and consequences of land change across a range of geographic and temporal scales. Our emphasis is on developing alternative future projections and quantifying the impact on environmental systems, in particular, the role of land-use change on ecosystem carbon dynamics. We are interested in how land-use and climate systems will...Land Cover Trends
Land Cover Trends was a research project focused on understanding the rates, trends, causes, and consequences of contemporary U.S. land use and land cover change. The project spanned from 1999 to 2011. The research was supported by the Climate and Land Use Change Research and Development Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and was a collaborative effort with the U.S. Environmental... - Data
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