Statistical review of systematic reconnaissance flight (SRF) surveys (2008-2023) for monitoring American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) nests in Everglades National Park

We reviewed current (2008-2023) protocols for monitoring American alligator nests in Everglades National Park (ENP) using a qualitative statistical review framework that emphasizes connecting measurable objectives with evaluation of survey design elements. Our review outlined the statistical assumptions that, if severely violated, would prevent defensible inferences from being drawn regarding the three alligator nesting metrics monitored in ENP’s systematic reconnaissance flight (SRF) surveys: nest effort (number of nests), nest distribution, and nest fate. After evaluating the current survey and inference methods, we offer potential adjustments or augmentations to the design and models currently used to better account for potential error sources and align the stated objectives with statistical inferences.