Mathematical Modeling
Mathematical Modeling
Filter Total Items: 18
Advancing Risk Modeling for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza
Southeast Asia has long been the epicenter of AIV emergence. However, as demonstrated by H5NX, these viruses can quickly reach global spread and have significant impacts on poultry production and human health. Researchers at the USGS Eastern Ecological Science Center have two ongoing efforts funded by the National Science Foundation to help improve our understanding of AIV emergence, spread, and...
Production, Behavior, and Survival of Juvenile Shad and River Herring
USGS is conducting research to better understand biology, behavior, and survival of juvenile fishes that travel between fresh and saltwater to complete their lifecycles. Migratory fishes as such as herring and shad are vital components in riverine and coastal ecosystems, transporting food and nutrients between fresh rivers and the ocean. They are also an important forage fish for predators in...
Population Monitoring and Removal Strategies for Blue Catfish (Ictalurus furcatus) in Chesapeake Bay
USGS is helping with the design of a population survey and developing mathematical models to assess potential activities to manage the population of invasive blue catfish ( Ictalurus furcatus) in the Chesapeake Bay. This research will help managers determine the cost and feasibility of approaches to control this invasive species.
Sustaining Horseshoe Crabs and Supporting Migratory Shorebirds in the Delaware Bay
USGS is developing predictive models to inform sustainable harvest of horseshoe crabs ( Limulus polyphemus) in Delaware Bay to help managers make decisions to support needs of people and shorebirds including rufa red knot ( Calidris canutus rufa).
Decision Science Support for SARS-CoV-2 Risk to North American Bats
The Eastern Ecological Science Center is working closely with federal, state, and tribal partners to help inform decisions that reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from humans to North American wildlife, including bats.
The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise: Understanding how macroscale drivers influence local processes and feedbacks
The purpose of this work is to advance our understanding of how coastal wetland responses to SLR within the conterminous United States are likely to vary as a function of local, regional, and macroscale drivers, including climate. Based on our interactions with managers and decision makers, as well as our knowledge of the current state of the science, we propose to (a) conduct a national synoptic...
Seagrass Vulnerability to Environmental Conditions Under Changing Temperature Regimes
Seagrasses are among the most productive ecosystems on the planet. Water quality degradation and direct human disturbance have caused loss of nearly a third of the seagrass habitat worldwide. These threats are exacerbated by stresses associated with a changing global climate. Predicting how seagrass distribution, abundance, and species composition will change in response to increased temperature...
Spatio-Temporal Statistical Models for Forecasting Climate Change Effects on Bird Distribution
Ecological indicators of climate change are needed to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and forecast the consequences of climate change. We seek to develop robust bird-based, climate-change indicators using North American Breeding Bird Survey data.
Conservation of Rare Vegetation Communities of the Atlantic Coastal Barrier Islands
The Challenge: A synthesis of the role of disturbance, in all of its manifestations, on the establishment and development of the American Holly forest is required to guide future conservation measures. Because many forest fragments have already endured >30 years of chronic deer herbivory, a legitimate question of how much more impact by deer can be tolerated and still conserve the essential type...
Post-Hurricane Sandy Vegetation Recovery in the Presence of a Hyper-abundant Deer Population
The Challenge: The primary dune along barrier island beaches protects leeward vegetation from tidal fluctuation, salt spray and storm surge. However, storm surges like those experienced during Hurricane Sandy can obliterate the primary dune, transporting sand inland and burying existing vegetation. The dune rebuilds naturally as recovering vegetation traps wind-blown and waterborne sand. The rate...
Hierarchical Models of Animal Abundance and Occurrence
The Challenge: Research goals of this project are to develop models, statistical methods, sampling strategies and tools for inference about animal population status from survey data. Survey data are always subject to a number of observation processes that induce bias and error. In particular, inferences are based on spatial sampling – we can only ever sample a subset of locations where species...
Spatial Capture-Recapture Models to Estimate Abundance and Density of Animal Populations
The Challenge: For decades, capture-recapture methods have been the cornerstone of ecological statistics as applied to population biology. While capture-recapture has become the standard sampling and analytical framework for the study of population processes (Williams, Nichols & Conroy 2002) it has advanced independent of and remained unconnected to the spatial structure of the population or the...