Forecasting the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Sagebrush in Wyoming Under a Changing Climate Active

Will the habitat we conserve today remain viable for sage-grouse and other sagebrush-obligate species in the future? To answer this question, USGS scientists and partners are developing a dynamic statistical model capable of forecasting sagebrush cover over space and time. They are using a spatially explicit, 28-year time series of sagebrush cover in southwestern Wyoming to model past responses of sagebrush to interannual variation in weather and to forecast future sagebrush cover under projected climate change. Climate change projections from an ensemble of global circulation models are being used for forecasts. The results of this work will produce maps of sagebrush cover from 1985 (past) to 2050 (future) for the core areas of the south-central local working group area, increasing our fundamental understanding of how sagebrush in Wyoming responds to short-term weather fluctuations and long-term climatic changes.