Application of a prior-based model discrimination framework using synthetic MODFLOW 6 groundwater models

A synthetic one-dimensional groundwater flow model was developed using MODFLOW 6 as a test application of the prior-based model discrimination method described in the associated publication (https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR040323). The model represents a steady-state unconfined aquifer where water flows horizontally between two constant head boundaries (a lake at the lefthand side and river at the righthand side) and precipitation recharges the aquifer. Process module uncertainty is considered in the representations of groundwater recharge, geologic structure, and snowmelt that controls the river stage constant head boundary. Two process modules are considered to represent each of the three uncertain system processes. This yielded eight candidate configurations of the groundwater model. This USGS data release contains all of the input and output files and ancillary Python scripts for the simulations and results described in the associated publication (https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR040323).