Predicted Number of Fires and Burned Area for CONUS (2020:2060)

We used a Bayesian statistical model that includes projections of where people will be located on the landscape and future atmospheric conditions from downscaled climate model simulations using a moderate warming trajectory (RCP 4.5), to make predictions regarding the number, size of the 90% largest fires, and area burned by wildfires in each Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) level-3 ecoregion across the U.S. from 2020-2060