Sage-Grouse Population Model

Changes to greater sage-grouse distribution in the American West predicted by a new scientific model based on extensive study of sage-grouse range contraction. "Likely secure populations" indicates areas where sage-grouse are present and currently stable. "Currently extirpated" indicates areas where sage-grouse are now locally extinct, as the model predicted. "Potential recolonization" indicates areas where populations are known to be locally extinct, but based on the model, landscape conditions are most similar to areas where sage-grouse currently persist. "At-risk populations" predicts absence where populations are known to occur. These habitats are most similar to areas where sage-grouse have already disappeared; therefore, existing populations are likely at risk of local extinction.