Aloha, it's your weekly Volcano Minute, brought to you by the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.

Over the past month, Kīlauea’s summit has seen fountaining episodes nearly every week—much faster than earlier in this eruption, which began in December 2024. These quick turnarounds happen because recent episodes have erupted less lava, allowing the volcano’s magma system to recover more quickly.

The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory uses ground‑tilt measurements to understand this cycle. When magma leaves the chamber during an episode, the ground tilts downward as the magma chamber beneath Kilauea summit deflates. During the pause that follows, magma refills the chamber, causing upward, or inflationary tilt of the ground surface. Since episode 5, these inflation and deflation patterns have been remarkably balanced, letting scientists estimate when the next episode may occur.

Forecasts aren’t perfect, though. Changes in the reinflation rate, brief deformation reversals, or even heavy rain—like the Kona low storms in March—can shift the timing. Still, these forecasts can help residents prepare for possible tephra fall, and we continue to watch for any signs the eruption’s behavior may change.

Mahalo for listening, I’m Katie Mulliken and this was your weekly volcano minute brought to you by the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.