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Compact seismicity bursts have different characteristics from regional seismicity

March 24, 2026

Earthquakes tend to cluster, developing into sequences driven by stress perturbations and transient fault-zone processes. Depending on the driving process, earthquake sequences show differing behaviors. This variability challenges our ability to observe or distinguish these driving processes in high resolution. Here we systematically identify seismicity bursts throughout southern California using new statistical methods and examine their causes with other independent geophysical observations. Seismicity bursts are defined as statistically significant seismicity rate anomalies. Our approach has the advantage of being data driven, depending on few earthquake occurrence assumptions. We find abundant seismicity bursts across southern California, most frequently occurring along the San Jacinto Fault and in the Salton Sea and Coso geothermal fields. These seismicity bursts are highly compact in space and time, often encompassed by a 5 km radius and have durations less than 10 hr. Many of the seismicity bursts have their largest earthquake near the beginning of the sequence, but the largest earthquake is usually not an obvious mainshock. We utilize a variety of independent geophysical data sets to analyze the characteristics of the seismicity bursts, finding that the seismicity bursts have low b-values, low spectral stress drops, and varied stress ratios compared to regional seismicity. These differences suggest that seismicity bursts are driven by transient processes acting frequently across fault networks.

Publication Year 2026
Title Compact seismicity bursts have different characteristics from regional seismicity
DOI 10.1029/2025JB032917
Authors Nicolas DeSalvio, Wenyuan Fan, Andrew J. Barbour, Jeanne L. Hardebeck
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title JGR Solid Earth
Index ID 70275221
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Earthquake Science Center
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