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Estimating probabilities of reservoir storage for the upper Delaware River basin

January 1, 1994

A technique for estimating conditional probabilities of reservoir system storage is described and applied to the upper Delaware River Basin. The results indicate that there is a 73 percent probability that the three major New York City reservoirs (Pepacton, Cannonsville, and Neversink) would be full by June 1, 1981, and only a 9 percent probability that storage would return to the ' drought warning ' sector of the operations curve sometime in the next year. In contrast, if restrictions are lifted and there is an immediate return to normal operating policies, the probability of the reservoir system being full by June 1 is 37 percent and the probability that storage would return to the ' drought warning ' sector in the next year is 30 percent. (USGS)

Citation Information

Publication Year 1981
Title Estimating probabilities of reservoir storage for the upper Delaware River basin
DOI 10.3133/ofr81478
Authors Robert M. Hirsch
Publication Type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Series Title Open-File Report
Series Number 81-478
Index ID ofr81478
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization

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