Expansion trends and impacts of Phragmites australis on the Louisiana Gulf Coast

Invasive plant species pose substantial threats to ecosystem integrity by disrupting ecosystem processes, reducing biodiversity, and complicating restoration and management efforts. Non-native lineages of Phragmites australis are invasive in wetlands across parts of North America, causing declines in the diversity of native wetland plants and disrupting biogeochemical cycles. Despite recognition of these effects, important knowledge gaps remain regarding the spatiotemporal dynamics, environmental drivers, and consequences of Phragmites expansion for native communities. Here, we examined long-term data from the Louisiana Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS), collected from 2006 to 2023 and spanning 390 sites across nine basins, to quantify basin-specific Phragmites cover trajectories and evaluate their associations with co-occurring native plant cover and soil properties. Louisiana supports both long-established noninvasive and (since ~2000) invasive European P. australis lineages, but CRMS cannot distinguish them; thus, our basin-level trajectories reflect species-level cover dynamics that may integrate lineage-specific turnover. Phragmites dynamics varied markedly among basins over the study period: Phragmites cover decreased in the Mississippi River Delta (initially >25%), whereas the Calcasieu-Sabine, Mermentau, Teche-Vermilion, and Terrebonne basins, each starting with <5%, exhibited positive expansion trends. The remaining four basins maintained low and stable Phragmites cover (<5%) over the study period. These distinct basin-level trajectories may reflect basin-to-basin differences in a hydrogeomorphic setting and associated sediment and nutrient inputs. In basins with positive expansion trends, Phragmites cover was associated with decreases in native plant cover. Overall, Phragmites expansion was positively associated with higher soil nutrients, lower pH, and higher salinity, highlighting key environmental factors that could inform targeted management to prevent or mitigate its expansion. Although Phragmites cover remains low in most basins (<10%), expansion in several basins suggests the value of basin-specific early-warning monitoring to maintain native plant cover and associated ecosystem functions. Our two-step framework offers a transferable monitoring template that integrates Phragmites cover trends (expanding/stable/declining), concurrently measured native plant cover, and key soil and pore-water indicators to flag emerging hotspots and prioritize adaptive management in other estuarine and deltaic systems.