Ice thickness regulates heat flux in permanently ice-covered lakes

The permanently ice-covered lakes of Taylor Valley, Antarctica, are rare ecosystems where permanent ice cover and year-round vertically stable water columns provide critical redox zones for cold-adapted microorganisms. Using 30 yr of limnological data from the McMurdo Dry Valleys Long-Term Ecological Research program, we assessed the water column heat flux of four permanently ice-covered lakes in the context of global lake ice decline and lake warming. Our study reveals that heat flux in Taylor Valley lakes is driven by ice cover dynamics, both annual changes in ice thickness as well as overall ice thickness. During periods of ice thinning, like those observed from 2020 to 2023, the lakes accumulate heat. Lake Fryxell, Lake Hoare, and West Lake Bonney have repeatedly cooled and warmed over our record, with only East Lake Bonney cooling due to lake level rise. Ice thickness is largely synchronous among the four lakes, with periods of asynchronicity likely caused by lake-specific changes in surface albedo driven by changes in optical properties of the ice covers and in-ice sediment dynamics.