An interactive viewer to improve operational aftershock forecasts
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) issues forecasts for aftershocks about 20 minutes after most earthquakes above M 5 in the United States and its territories, and updates these forecasts 75 times during the first year. Most of the forecasts are issued automatically, but some forecasts require manual intervention to maintain accuracy. It is important to identify the sequences whose forecasts will benefit from a modified approach so the USGS can provide accurate information to the public. The oaftools R package (Paris and Michael, 2022) includes functions that analyze and plot earthquake sequences and their forecasts to identify which sequences require such intervention. The package includes the Operational Aftershock Forecast (OAF) Viewer, which incorporates the functions into an interactive web environment that can be used to explore aftershock sequences. The OAF Viewer starts with a global map and table of mainshocks. After a mainshock has been selected, the map and a new table show its aftershocks and the OAF Viewer generates five analytical plots: (1) magnitude–time, which is used to look for patterns in the data; (2) cumulative number, to see how the productivity of the sequence compares to a Reasenberg and Jones (1989) aftershock model over time; (3) magnitude–frequency, to compare the ratio of large to small magnitudes and extrapolate to higher magnitudes with sparse data and lower magnitudes with incomplete data; (4) forecast success, to compare the forecasts with observations for a sequence; and (5) parameter–time, which examines the temporal evolution of the forecast model parameters. The user can interact with the functions provided by the oaftools package through the OAF Viewer or by incorporating the functions into their own analysis methods. The OAF Viewer will help seismologists understand complexities in the data, communicate with the public and emergency managers, and improve the OAF system by maintaining operational awareness.
Citation Information
Publication Year | 2023 |
---|---|
Title | An interactive viewer to improve operational aftershock forecasts |
DOI | 10.1785/0220220108 |
Authors | Gabrielle Madison Paris, Andrew J. Michael |
Publication Type | Article |
Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
Series Title | Seismological Research Letters |
Index ID | 70239296 |
Record Source | USGS Publications Warehouse |
USGS Organization | Earthquake Science Center |
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OAF Tools - R package
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- Software
OAF Tools - R package
This repository contains the source code for the oaftools package. The package creates visual tools to study aftershock behavior and the performance of the Operational Aftershock Forecasting system. The visual tools are: A global map, rendered by Leaflet to show the distribution of earthquakes with forecasts A local map, rendered by Leaflet to show the aftershock sequence and the aftershock zone - Connect