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Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming

November 1, 2016

The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land–atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface’s response to climate and CO2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.

Publication Year 2016
Title Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming
DOI 10.1038/nclimate3029
Authors Alexis Berg, Kirsten Findell, Benjamin Lintner, Alessandra Giannini, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Bart van den Hurk, Ruth Lorenz, Andy Pitman, Stefan Hagemann, Arndt Meier, Frédérique Cheruy, Agnès Ducharne, Sergey Malyshev, Paul C. D. Milly
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Nature Climate Change
Index ID 70185042
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization National Research Program - Eastern Branch