Long-term monitoring reveals management effects on Prairie Warbler colonization, local extinction, and detection in a Massachusetts pine barren

Habitat management can directly impact Setophaga discolor (Prairie Warbler) abundance and distribution. Despite regional declines, Prairie Warbler populations at Camp Edwards (Bourne, MA) have increased. To investigate habitat-management effects on Prairie Warbler populations at Camp Edwards, we used a dynamic-occupancy model to analyze a long-term monitoring dataset collected across 84 point-count sites from 2013 to 2022. The model results indicated that Prairie Warbler colonization and extinction probabilities were impacted by management (measured in years since disturbance). Colonization probability was highest initially after disturbance, then subsequently decreased for ∼50 years, and extinction probability also decreased for ∼25 years. Both probabilities remained low before increasing at ∼75 years since disturbance. The increase in colonization probability >75 years since disturbance may have been an artifact of our study design and incomplete disturbance records. We also found that latitude and longitude significantly affected colonization probability, likely a result of how habitat types are distributed across the base. These results inform how Prairie Warblers respond to long-term management, suggesting that habitat management could improve colonization rates and sustain Prairie Warbler populations.