Mechanisms of Devils Lake’s responses to recent climatic wetting: Insights from a physically based hydrologic model

Study region

Devils Lake Basin of the Northern Great Plains (NGP) region, North Dakota, USA

Study focus

Understanding the mechanism of Devils Lake’s responses and basin-wide hydrologic change under a wet-climatic regime using a process-based and cold region hydrologic model.

New hydrologic insights

Model results illustrate that three distinct hydroclimatic periods occurred during the study: Water Years 2002–05, 2006–11, and 2012–18. Following a brief time of contraction and growth, the latter two periods provide a complete picture of a wetting to drying cycle during an overall wetting regime. From 2006–2011, Devils Lake (DL) grew primarily due to lateral inflow, driven by strong precipitation and high frozen soil content leading up to the 2011 floods. In addition, during wet years, the snowmelt streamflow from the eastern and central parts of the DL Basin contributes significantly to lake growth compared to the western part. By contrast, from 2012 to 18, DL entered a contraction period, dominated by evaporation losses and anthropogenic flood control operations. Contributors to upstream drying included low precipitation, minimal snowpack accumulation, slightly lower frozen soil ratios, and minimal snowmelt runoff.