Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency and mean annual flow statistics at gaged and ungaged locations on streams in Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Georgia Department of Natural Resources (Environmental Protection Division), North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality (Division of Water Resources), North Carolina Department of Public Safety (Office of Recovery and Resiliency), and South Carolina Department of Environmental Services, updated low-flow frequency, mean annual flow, and flow-duration statistics at 843 streamgages in and near Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. The low-flow frequency statistics are annual minimum 1-day average flow with a 10-year recurrence interval (1Q10), annual minimum 7-day average flow for 2- and 10-year recurrence intervals (7Q2 and 7Q10, respectively), and annual minimum 30-day average flow with 2- and 3-year recurrence intervals (30Q2 and 30Q3, respectively). Monthly 1Q10 and 7Q10, and W7Q10 flow statistics for the winter period (November–March) also are presented. By using data from 604 of the streamgages on streams with streamflows that are not substantially affected by regulation or diversion and are not tidally influenced, regional regression equations were developed to predict flow statistics with prediction intervals at ungaged locations on streams with those same criteria. The regional regression analysis included data from 132 streamgages from adjacent States Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia. The final regional regression equations include variables such as drainage area, streamflow variability, precipitation, percentage of impervious area, and percentage of the basin in various ecoregions. The low-flow statistics for the streamgages analyzed and the regional regression equations will be integrated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats application (https://www.usgs.gov/streamstats) for Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. StreamStats generates basin characteristics needed to compute low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged locations.

A trend analysis of annual minimum 7-day average flows was done for 78 streamgages with at least 30 years of continuous record. Trends were evaluated for 30-, 50‑, 70-, and 90-year periods, ending in climate year 2021, and independence and short- and long-term persistence assumptions were considered. For all trend analysis assumptions, most streamgages did not exhibit significant trends in annual minimum 7-day average flows. Trends in annual precipitation and air temperature were similarly evaluated for the period 1895–2021 to assess the variability of climate for Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina.