An oilspill risk analysis of the Mid-Atlantic (Proposed Sale 49) outer continental shelf lease area

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the mid-Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf lease area. The study analyzed the probability of spill occurrence, likely paths of the spilled oil, and locations in space and time of recreational and biological resources that are likely to be vulnerable. These results are combined to yield estimates of the overall oilspill risk associated with development of the proposed lease area. The analysis implicitly includes estimates of weathering rates and slick dispersion and an indication of the possible mitigating effects of cleanups. Assuming that economically recoverable amounts of petroleum are found in the area, the leasing of the tracts proposed for sale 49 will increase the expected number of spills by about 20-25 percent over the number expected from the existing (sale 40) leases. The probability that an object such as land will be contacted by a spill is increased by at most five percentage points. (Woodard-USGS)