Pilot studies of seismic hazard and risk in North Sulawesi Province, Indonesia

Earthquake ground motions in North Sulawesi on soft soil that have a 90% probability of not been exceeded in 560 years are estimated to be 0.63 g (63% of the acceleration of gravity) at Palu, 0.31 g at Gorontalo, and 0.27 g at Manado. Estimated ground motions for rock conditions for the same probability level and exposure time are 56% of those for soft soil. The hazard estimates are obtained from seismic sources that model the earthquake potential to a depth of 100 km beneath northern and central Sulawesi and include the Palu fault zone of western Sulawesi, the North Sulawesi subduction zone, and the southern most segment of the Sangihe subduction zone beneath the Molucca Sea. An attenuation relation based on Japanese strong-motion data and considered appropriate for subduction environments of the western Pacific was used in determination of ground motions. Following the 18 April 1990 North Sulawesi earthquake (Ms 7.3) a seismic hazard and risk assessment was carried out. -from Authors