Predation of Lost River and Shortnose Suckers by piscivorous colonial waterbirds in the Upper Klamath Basin: An analysis of predation effects in 2024

The recovery of endangered fish requires an understanding of the sources of mortality that regulate population dynamics. We estimated avian predation rates on passive integrated transponder tagged (PIT) adult and juvenile Lost River Suckers (Deltistes luxatus), Shortnose Suckers (Chasmistes brevirostris), Klamath Largescale Suckers (C. snyderi), and juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) by breeding colonies of American White Pelicans (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos), Doublecrested Cormorants (Nannopterum auritum), Caspian Terns (Hydroprogne caspia), California Gulls (Larus californicus), Ring-billed Gulls (L. delawarensis), Great Blue Herons (Ardea herodias), Great Egrets (A. alba), and Black-crowned Night Herons (Nycticorax nycticorax) in the Upper Klamath Basin (UKB) in 2024. Results from 2024 contribute to a long-term (2009–2023) avian predation dataset in the UKB. The largest numbers of pelicans (1,422 breeding adults), terns (610 adults), and gulls (3,872) were nesting on islands in Clear Lake Reservoir. The largest number of cormorants (787 adults) were on an island in Sheepy Lake, and the largest numbers of herons (450 adults) were at arboreal sites adjacent to Upper Klamath Lake. Predation rate estimates in 2024 were highly variable depending on the fish species, ageclass (juvenile, adult), waterbody (Upper Klamath Lake, Clear Lake Reservoir, Sheepy Lake, Tule Lake), and release or reencounter date for juveniles (spring/summer or fall/winter). Results indicated that avian predation rates were the highest on wild and hatchery juvenile suckers. An estimated 19.4% (95% credible interval = 15.7–24.0) of Sucker Assisted Rearing Program (SARP) hatchery fish, released or reencountered during the spring and summer, were consumed by the colonies included in the study. Predation was also appreciable on wild juvenile suckers in Clear Lake Reservoir (13.4% [9.9–17.7]) and SARP juvenile suckers released or reencountered in Upper Klamath Lake in the fall/winter (11.2% [9.6 13.2]). Predation rate estimates on adult suckers were significantly lower than those of juvenile suckers, with predation ranging from 0.3% (0.2–0.7) to 2.6% (1.9–3.5) in adult Lost River Suckers in Upper Klamath Lake and adult Shortnose Suckers-Klamath Largescale Suckers in Clear Lake Reservoir, respectively. Predation rate estimates on juvenile Chinook Salmon, which were released in fall/winter, were 2.9% (2.2–3.6). Pelican (312 adults) and cormorant (301 adults) colonies in Upper Klamath Lake, however, were not scanned for fish PIT tags following breeding season, resulting in minimum estimates of predation on UKB fishes (both suckers and Chinook Salmon) in 2024. Future research could examine what biotic and abiotic factors best explain variation in predation and to what degree predation limits sucker survival using the long-term dataset that has been complied to date.