Predicting the response of fish populations to changes in river connectivity using individual-based models

Barrier removal restores physical stream processes and improves accessibility of critical habitats to migratory fishes. Although increasing connectivity benefits stream systems and migratory fishes, barrier removals may also lead to increased production of undesirable or invasive migratory species, as well as myriad other concerns (e.g., reduced recreational opportunities). Few studies have predicted how migratory fish populations will respond to enhanced fish passage, despite being a critical step in the decision-making process. We developed an individual-based model framework to forecast the response of migratory fishes to changes in connectivity and applied the framework to six species under multiple fish passage scenarios for the FishPass project on the Boardman River, MI, which outlets into Lake Michigan. Population response to barrier removal was species-specific and varied based on initial population size and distribution within the watershed, number of fish passed upstream, and species life history traits. Species restricted to below the barrier prior to removal benefitted most; non-native species were found to have greater production potential under full passage scenarios than native Great Lakes species. With increasing passage of non-native Pacific salmonids, steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss surpassed brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis as the system’s dominant species. Our results will inform decision-makers on management alternatives for fish passage on the Boardman River and our model framework can be modified, updated, and applied to additional river systems as more barrier removal projects are conducted in the future.