This report describes the preliminary viability assessment (PVA) of forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) for Lake Mendocino, which is located on the East Fork Russian River three miles east of Ukiah, California. The results described in this report represent the collective activities of the Lake Mendocino FIRO Steering Committee (SC) (SC members are named on the inside cover of the report). The SC consists of water managers and scientists from several federal, state, and local agencies, and universities who have teamed to evaluate whether current technology and scientific understanding can be utilized to improve reliability of meeting water management objectives of Lake Mendocino while not impairing flood protection. While the PVA provides an initial evaluation of the viability of FIRO as a concept, additional steps remain to complete the full viability assessment (FVA). Also, the PVA does not identify how FIRO strategies would be implemented. That effort would be the focus of the FVA, which builds off the analyses developed in the PVA.
This report summarizes current Lake Mendocino operation and a preliminary analysis of FIRO alternatives, including analysis methods, results, and recommendations. A set of accompanying reports describes the analysis in detail. These are referred to herein as the Sonoma County Water Agency (SCWA) report, the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) report, and the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) report (SCWA 2017, USACE 2017, and CW3E 2017, respectively).
