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Regional stochastic generation of streamflows using an ARIMA (1,0,1) process and disaggregation

January 1, 1994

An ARIMA (1,0,1) model was calibrated and used to generate long annual flow sequences at three sites in the Juniata River basin, Pennsylvania. The model preserves the mean, variance, and cross correlations of the observed station data. In addition, it has a desirable blend of both high and low frequency characteristics and therefore is capable of preserving the Hurst coefficient, h. The generated annual flows are disaggregated into monthly sequences using a modification of the Valencia-Schaake model. The low-flow frequency and flow duration characteristics of the generated monthly flows, with length equal to the historical data, compare favorably with the historical data. Once the models were verified, 100-year sequences were generated and analyzed for their low flow characteristics. One-, three- and six- month low-flow frequencies at recurrence intervals greater than 10 years are generally found to be lower than flow computed from the historical flows. A method is proposed for synthesizing flows at ungaged sites. (Kosco-USGS)

Citation Information

Publication Year 1979
Title Regional stochastic generation of streamflows using an ARIMA (1,0,1) process and disaggregation
DOI 10.3133/wri793
Authors Jeffrey T. Armbruster
Publication Type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Series Title Water-Resources Investigations Report
Series Number 79-3
Index ID wri793
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Pennsylvania Water Science Center