Shifting phenology in planktonic foraminifera in the Gulf of America (Mexico) with 21st century warming

We investigate trends in foraminiferal phenology using a 12-year (2008–2020), well-resolved (7 to 28-day resolution) time series of planktonic foraminiferal fluxes from a U.S. Geological Survey sediment trap in the northern Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico; 27.5°N, 90.3°W). The total foraminiferal flux declined over this time. We used Horn-Morisita dissimilarity analysis, principal coordinate analysis, and correlation matrices to show that fall assemblages became more similar in composition to summer assemblages (July–September) over the 12 years. As a result, winter (January–March) and fall (October–December) assemblages, which dominate the total annual foraminiferal flux, became more dissimilar in composition. This pattern is consistent with multidecadal, non-uniform trends of increasing seasonal sea surface temperatures, affecting the seasonality and composition of foraminiferal communities through changing species phenology. We speculate that similar phenological changes across plankton communities might have led to trophic mismatch, causing the decline in total foraminiferal flux.