Statewide agent-based model for management of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer: PAOvCWD

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is an always-fatal disease infecting wild cervids globally. Ecologically and economically important, CWD presents a challenge for managing white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We built an agent-based model to simulate CWD transmission and assess potential management actions that could slow disease spread: PAOvCWD. We developed PAOvCWD using contact rates and other behavioral and ecological metrics estimated from deer monitored in Pennsylvania, USA. We programmed potential management responses (e.g., culling, altered hunter harvest) for all 22 Pennsylvania wildlife management units and validated the efficacy of PAOvCWD using a deer population in south-central Pennsylvania infected with CWD for > 10 years. To support applications of our model, we developed a user-friendly R pipeline that allows implementation with relatively minor modifications. Our pipeline includes four steps:

• •Steps 1 and 2 generate regional percent forest cover rasters and curate population-level demographics.
• •Step 3 initializes landscapes and agents using our PAOvPOP model.
• •Step 4 assesses CWD transmission and management responses using our PAOvCWD model.