Trend analysis of monthly sulfur dioxide emissions in the conterminous United States, 1975-1984

Trends in monthly sulfur dioxide emissions for the 48 conterminous United States during the decade 1975-1984 are identified using a robust nonparametric procedure. Statistically significant downward trends are indicated in 32 States, upward trends appear in 10 States, and no significant trend is apparent in six States. Geographically, a distinct regional pattern of emission increases and decreases is evident with declines dominating the Eastern and Western States; increases aligning longitudinally from border to border in most of the Great Plains States, in several New England States, and in Georgia; and no trends frequently occurring in proximity to the upward trending emissions in the Plains States. A time-series decomposition of the monthly values indicates that one distinct emissions pattern commonly occurred through the period of record. This pattern is characterized by an initial emissions increase that peaks between 1977 and 1978, followed by a shallow and undulating decrease though the end of 1984. It is suggested that this signature represents the 'national' trend for the period. In addition, five regions of coherent sulfur dioxide emissions behavior are defined on the basis of seasonal occurrence of maximum and minimum emission loadings. A winter-summer, latitudinal opposition is apparent in the timing of emissions maxima, whereas an equinox-summer, longitudinal opposition is apparent in the timing of emissions minima.Trends in monthly sulfur dioxide emissions for the 48 conterminous United States during the decade 1975-1984 are identified using a robust nonparametric procedure. Statistically significant downward trends are indicated in 32 States, upward trends appear in 10 States, and no significant trend is apparent in six States. Geographically, a distinct regional pattern of emission increases and decreases is evident with declines dominating the Eastern and Western States; increases aligning longitudinally from border to border in most of the Great Plains States, in several New England States, and in Georgia; and no trends frequently occurring in proximity to the upward trending emissions in the Plains States. A time-series decomposition of the monthly values indicates that one distinct emissions pattern commonly occurred through the period of record. This pattern is characterized by an initial emissions increase that peaks between 1977 and 1978, followed by a shallow and undulating decrease through the end of 1984. It is suggested that this signature represents the 'national' trend for the period. Additional study results are discussed.