U.S. Geological Survey assessment concepts for conventional petroleum accumulations: Chapter 24 in Petroleum systems and geologic assessment of oil and gas in the San Joaquin Basin Province, California

Conventional petroleum accumulations are discrete fields or pools localized in structural or stratigraphic traps by the buoyancy of oil or gas in water; they float, bubble-like, in water. This report describes the fundamental concepts supporting the U.S. Geological Survey “Seventh Approximation” model for resource assessments of conventional accumulations. The Seventh Approximation provides a strategy for estimating volumes of undiscovered petroleum (oil, gas, and coproducts) having the potential to be added to reserves in a 30-year forecast span. The assessment of an area requires (1) choice of a minimum accumulation size, (2) assignment of geologic and access risk, and (3) estimation of the number and sizes of undiscovered accumulations in the assessment area. The combination of these variables yields probability distributions for potential additions to reserves. Assessment results are controlled by geology-based input parameters supplied by knowledgeable geologists, as opposed to projections of historical trends.