US geological survey Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA): Introduction and summary of organization and methods

The USGS has assessed undiscovered petroleum resources in the Arctic through geological mapping, basin analysis and quantitative assessment. The new map compilation provided the base from which geologists subdivided the Arctic for burial history modelling and quantitative assessment. The CARA was a probabilistic, geologically based study that used existing USGS methodology, modified somewhat for the circumstances of the Arctic. The assessment relied heavily on analogue modelling, with numerical input as lognormal distributions of sizes and numbers of undiscovered accumulations. Probabilistic results for individual assessment units were statistically aggregated taking geological dependencies into account. Fourteen papers in this Geological Society volume present summaries of various aspects of the CARA.