Living on the Edge: Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Native Fishes in Northern Great Plains Streams Active
O'Fallon Creek near Mildred, Montana
USGS hydrologist Rod Caldwell observed by cows at O'Fallon Creek
Pine Creek tributary to O'Fallon Creek near Mildred, Montana
Montana State U. fisheries biologist Bob Bramblett at O'Fallon Creek
Organisms that live in the semi-arid prairies in the Northern Great Plains are able to live through conditions of extreme heat, cold, floods, and drought. The fish that inhabit the warm, turbid waters of northern Great Plains streams are indicators of change in these delicate ecosystems, where water quantity and water quality are often precariously close to ecological tolerance limits. In fact, changes in water quantity associated with global climate change may transform some prairie streams from essential refuges to habitats no longer capable of supporting fishes. USGS researchers and their partners are studying these changes and developing tools to assist managers in predicting the effects of climate change on prairie stream ecosystems of the northern Great Plains.
Objectives
- Construct precipitation-runoff models to simulate daily streamflow for baseline (current) conditions in several watersheds in eastern Montana.
- Develop a regional model of fish assemblage structure as a function of watershed characteristics using a database of over 1,600 fish collections from Montana prairie streams to serve as a baseline of current conditions.
- Predict how hydrology and fish assemblages will be affected using the precipitation-runoff models and projected changes in precipitation and temperature from the RegCM3 regional climate model (available at http://regclim.coas.oregonstate.edu)
- Use projected climate conditions to predict where changes in fish assemblages will occur, relative to the current levels of biological integrity (Index of Biotic Integrity or IBI) for the samples in the regional fish database. This will allow researchers to identify areas of primary conservation concern and compare them to the areas that are most likely to undergo changes as a result of climate change.
Below are data associated with this project.
Documentation of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System and Output from the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model Used to Estimate Potential Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow for Seven Watersheds in Eastern and Central Montana (2013-2014 Analyses)
Below are publications associated with this project.
Potential effects of climate change on streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana
Estimating current and future streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites, central and eastern Montana, with application to evaluating effects of climate change on fish populations
Below are partners associated with this project.
- Overview
Organisms that live in the semi-arid prairies in the Northern Great Plains are able to live through conditions of extreme heat, cold, floods, and drought. The fish that inhabit the warm, turbid waters of northern Great Plains streams are indicators of change in these delicate ecosystems, where water quantity and water quality are often precariously close to ecological tolerance limits. In fact, changes in water quantity associated with global climate change may transform some prairie streams from essential refuges to habitats no longer capable of supporting fishes. USGS researchers and their partners are studying these changes and developing tools to assist managers in predicting the effects of climate change on prairie stream ecosystems of the northern Great Plains.
Objectives
- Construct precipitation-runoff models to simulate daily streamflow for baseline (current) conditions in several watersheds in eastern Montana.
- Develop a regional model of fish assemblage structure as a function of watershed characteristics using a database of over 1,600 fish collections from Montana prairie streams to serve as a baseline of current conditions.
- Predict how hydrology and fish assemblages will be affected using the precipitation-runoff models and projected changes in precipitation and temperature from the RegCM3 regional climate model (available at http://regclim.coas.oregonstate.edu)
- Use projected climate conditions to predict where changes in fish assemblages will occur, relative to the current levels of biological integrity (Index of Biotic Integrity or IBI) for the samples in the regional fish database. This will allow researchers to identify areas of primary conservation concern and compare them to the areas that are most likely to undergo changes as a result of climate change.
- Data
Below are data associated with this project.
Documentation of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System and Output from the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model Used to Estimate Potential Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow for Seven Watersheds in Eastern and Central Montana (2013-2014 Analyses)
Fish in Northern Great Plains streams evolved to survive heat, cold, floods and drought; however changes in streamflow associated with long-term climate change may render some prairie streams uninhabitable for current fish species. To better understand future hydrology of these prairie streams, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model and output from the RegCM3 Regional Climate model - Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Potential effects of climate change on streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana
Study regionEastern and central Montana.Study focusFish in Northern Great Plains streams tolerate extreme conditions including heat, cold, floods, and drought; however changes in streamflow associated with long-term climate change may render some prairie streams uninhabitable for current fish species. To better understand future hydrology of these prairie streams, the Precipitation-Runoff ModelingAuthorsKatherine J. Chase, Adel E. Haj, R. Steven Regan, Roland J. VigerEstimating current and future streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites, central and eastern Montana, with application to evaluating effects of climate change on fish populations
A common statistical procedure for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged locations is to develop a relational model between streamflow and drainage basin characteristics at gaged locations using least squares regression analysis; however, least squares regression methods are parametric and make constraining assumptions about the data distribution. The random forest regression method providesAuthorsRoy Sando, Katherine J. Chase - Partners
Below are partners associated with this project.