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Demographic data and population indices for American kestrels in the North America, 1986–2019

September 1, 2026

American kestrels (Falco sparverius, hereafter kestrel) have been declining across most North America at a steady rate of approximately −1.4% per year since the 1960s. Though kestrel populations have been intensively studied throughout their North American range, no long-term trends in demographic parameters (vital rates) have been detected nor have potential causes of decline been explicitly identified. Here we synthesized multiple long-term datasets (1986–2019) at the continental scale within an integrated population model to estimate long-term trends in survival, abundance, and fecundity vital rates. We used data from individual nests from multiple nest box studies conducted in Alabama, Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming to parameterize a normal model to estimate productivity vital rates. Specifically, we used the brood size for each nest. Additionally, we also used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS; see details on survey design, field and analytical methods in Sauer et al. 2011) for use in a state space model. The BBS is a large-scale coordinated survey that occurs each spring throughout the United States and Canada. Lastly, we used kestrel band recovery data from the U.S. Geological Survey for use in a Seber Dead Recovery Model; both datasets are publicly available and encompassed North America.

Publication Year 2026
Title Demographic data and population indices for American kestrels in the North America, 1986–2019
DOI 10.5066/P1J2NXWL
Authors Paige E Howell, Jessi L Brown, Julie A Heath, John A Smallwood, Karen Steenhof, Ted Swem, Karl E Miller, Chris J McClure, Jean-Francois Therrian, Guthrie S Zimmerman, Brian A. Millsap, Abigail J Lawson
Product Type Data Release
Record Source USGS Asset Identifier Service (AIS)
USGS Organization Cooperative Research Units Program
Rights This work is marked with CC0 1.0 Universal
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