Ecological model support for the Second Periodic CERP (Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan) Update (SPCU) and the Everglades Multispecies Programmatic Biological Assessment (EMSBA), 2026

Ecological models facilitate the evaluation of alternative approaches to restore the Greater Everglades ecosystem. However, the provision of useful and accessible models is a challenge because there is often a disconnect between model developers and model users such as natural resource managers and decision makers. Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM) meets this challenge by providing ecological model output that is tailored to management decisions. Here, ecological model output is provided to inform the Second Periodic CERP (Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan) Update (SPCU) and the Everglades Multispecies Programmatic Biological Assessment (EMSBA). The purpose of the SPCU is to provide a basis to evaluate whether the purposes and goals of the CERP are being met. The CERP was authorized by Congress under the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) 2000, and significant progress in design, construction, and operations under CERP has occurred since the Initial Periodic CERP Update (IPCU) in 2005. The purpose of the EMSBA is to evaluate potential effects of the CERP on Federally listed species. The following model outputs were provided by JEM to aid in evaluation of the SPCU: (1) American alligator Habitat Suitability Index (HSI), (2) Small-sized freshwater fish density, (3) Days since drydown (DSD), (4) Eversnail native Florida Applesnail population model, (5) EverWaders wading bird occupancy model, and (6) Everglades Vulnerability Analysis (EVA) vegetation types. The following model outputs were provided by JEM to aid in evaluation of the EMSBA: (1) EverSparrow probability of presence the endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS), (2) CSSS Viewer, and (3) KiteNest for the endangered Everglade Snail Kite nesting site selection model. JEM did not provide model outputs for the 2005 IPCU.