Monotonic Trends in Modelled Water Supply for Select Outputs from NHM-PRMS models for Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands

This dataset contains the Mann-Kendall p value, Theil - Sen slope estimate, summary statistics for eleven modelled water budget components simulated by the National Hydrologic Model Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (NHM-PRMS) (Markstrom and others, 2024).

The trend analyses are created from aggregated outputs from three separate models, each of which was forced with Daymet Version 4:

1) Hawaii (Rosa and others, 2025; Foks and others, 2025a), and
2) Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (LaFontaine and others, 2024; Foks and others, 2025b).

The data are provided at two spatial regionalizations: 1) The 12-digit Hydrologic Use Code (HUC-12), developed from the Water Boundary Dataset (available at Blodgett, 2022) and 2) separately for each of the three model domains. Each water budget component can have multiple statistics on which the trends are analyzed; soil moisture and snow water equivalent have the most statistics. Trends were computed on a water year (October 1 - September 30th) basis and for seasons winter (December, January, February), spring (March, April, May), summer (June, July, August), and fall (September, October, November).

Trends were computed for two time periods: 1) Water Year 1983 - 2021, a period identified in a companion data release for the contiguous United States (Goodling and others, 2026) and 2) and Water Year 2000-2020, a period of interest in associated USGS projects. This dataset is intended to support assessments of changes in water supply within the Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Users are encouraged to review the metadata for additional information regarding how the datasets were prepared. A reproducible coding pipeline in the R computer language that produced this data is included in this data release. Reviewing the coding pipeline will enable users to understand the data preparation and to adapt as necessary for other purposes.

Blodgett, D. L. 2022, Mainstem Rivers of the Conterminous United States (ver. 2.0, February 2023): U.S. Geological Survey, accessed March 12, 2026, at https://doi.org/10.5066/P92U7ZUT.
Foks, S. S., LaFontaine, J. H., McDonald, R. R., Snyder, A. M., Kolb, K., LaMotte, A. E., Viger, R. 2025a, Monthly twelve‑digit hydrologic unit code aggregations of the National Hydrologic Model Precipitation‑Runoff Modeling System modeling application for Hawaii, 1980–2021: U.S. Geological Survey, accessed March 13, 2026, at https://doi.org/10.5066/P14NFNOJ.
Foks, S. S., LaFontaine, J. H., McDonald, R. R., Snyder, A. M., Kolb, K., LaMotte, A. E., Viger, R. 2025b, Monthly twelve‑digit hydrologic unit code aggregations of the National Hydrologic Model Precipitation‑Runoff Modeling System modeling application for Puerto Rico, 1950–2021 (ver. 2.0, June 2025): U.S. Geological Survey, accessed March 13, 2026, at https://doi.org/10.5066/P1ERNH5C.
Goodling, P., Foks, S., Ayers, J., and Stagnitta, T., 2026, Monotonic Trends in Modelled Water Supply for Select Outputs from NHM-PRMS models for Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P13JTVJT.
LaFontaine, J. H., Swain, E. D., Norton, P. A., McDonald, R. R., Markstrom, S. L., Regan, R. S., Bellino, J. C., 2024, Application of the National Hydrologic Model Infrastructure with the Precipitation‑Runoff Modeling System for Puerto Rico, Geospatial Fabric version 1.0, and Daymet version 4 Atmospheric Forcings, 1950–2021: U.S. Geological Survey, accessed March 13, 2026, at https://doi.org/10.5066/P14FNBF7.
Rosa, S. N., Markstrom, S. L., McDonald, R. R., Norton, P. A., Dickinson, J. E., Regan, R. S., Bock, A., Santiago, M., Wieczorek, M. E., LaFontaine, J. H., 2025, Hawai‘i National Hydrologic Model (NHM) application, 1980–2021: U.S. Geological Survey, accessed March 13, 2026, at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9NP24AS.