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Projected change in seven annual phenology metrics under future climate scenarios in the U.S. Southwest

April 1, 2026

The dataset includes processing scripts and 42 raster files of predicted change (delta) in annual vegetation phenology under future climate scenarios in the U.S. Southwest, using different combinations of phenology metrics, time periods, and emissions scenarios. Delta values are median projected changes across 10 global climate models and are relative to a reference period of 1981-2010. Projections are available for all 42 possible combinations of seven phenology metrics (amplitude, cumulative EVI, peak EVI, day of peak EVI, start of growing season, end of growing season, length of growing season), three future time periods (2021-2050, 2041-2070, and 2061-2090) and two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Projections are masked to grid cells with land-cover types most commonly used by focal grassland wildlife species (Scaled Quail, Gambel's Quail, Gunnison's prairie dog, American pronghorn). Units of analysis are ~6x6 km grid cells.

Publication Year 2026
Title Projected change in seven annual phenology metrics under future climate scenarios in the U.S. Southwest
DOI 10.5066/P13HWZWD
Authors Tyler G Creech, Matthew A Williamson
Product Type Data Release
Record Source USGS Asset Identifier Service (AIS)
USGS Organization National Climate Adaptation Science Center
Rights This work is marked with CC0 1.0 Universal
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