Magnitude 6.4 Earthquake in Puerto Rico
This story will be updated when new information becomes available.
7-day aftershock forecast [English]
Evening Update - Monday, January 13
7-Day Aftershock Forecast
The USGS aftershock forecast indicates there is a 3% chance of a magnitude 6.4 or larger aftershock over the next 7 days.
30-Day Aftershock Scenarios (Revised: Jan 13; English | Spanish)
Based on our aftershock forecasts, USGS has modeled three possible scenarios for this earthquake sequence as it evolves over the next month. These scenarios represent what could happen from January 13 to February 13, 2020. Only one of these scenarios will occur. The earthquakes in these scenarios would occur in the areas near where aftershocks are happening now. Regardless of scenario, earthquakes will continue to occur for days, months, or potentially years to come. It is very unlikely the aftershocks will cease completely within the next month.
Scenario One (most likely): 81 percent chance [+5% from yesterday]
The most likely scenario is that aftershocks will continue to decrease in frequency over the next 30 days, with no further earthquakes similarly sized to the M 6.4 that occurred on Jan. 7, 2020 (i.e., will be less than M 6.0). Some of these moderately sized aftershocks (M 5.0+) may cause localized damage, particularly in weak structures. Smaller magnitude earthquakes (M 3.0+), when at shallow depth, may be felt by people close to the epicenters.
Scenario Two (less likely): 17 percent chance [-4% from yesterday]
A less likely scenario is an earthquake occurring of similar size as the M 6.4 event. This is called a “doublet”: when two large earthquakes of similar size occur closely in time and location. This earthquake could cause additional damage in the same region and increases the number of aftershocks.
Scenario Three (least likely): 2 percent chance [-1% from yesterday]
A much less likely scenario than the previous two scenarios is that recent earthquakes could trigger an earthquake significantly larger than the M 6.4 that occurred Jan. 7, 2020 (i.e., M 7.0 and above). While this is a small probability, if such an earthquake were to occur, it would have serious impacts on communities nearby. This sized earthquake would also trigger its own aftershock sequence, so the rate of small and moderate earthquakes would increase again.
Morning Update - Monday, January 13
Aftershock Forecast
The USGS aftershock forecast, updated on Jan. 13, indicates the likelihood of a M 6.0 or larger aftershock over the next 7 days is 8 percent [down 3% from yesterday]. There continues to be a high likelihood of M 3.0+ aftershocks this week. The rate of aftershocks will continue to decline over time.
Estimates for other magnitude ranges and time periods can be found in the forecast.
30-Day Aftershock Scenarios (Revised: Jan 13; English | Spanish)
Based on our aftershock forecasts, USGS has modeled three possible scenarios for this earthquake sequence as it evolves over the next month. These scenarios represent what could happen from January 13 to February 13, 2020. Only one of these scenarios will occur. The earthquakes in these scenarios would occur in the areas near where aftershocks are happening now. Regardless of scenario, earthquakes will continue to occur for days, months, or potentially years to come. It is very unlikely the aftershocks will cease completely within the next month.
Scenario One (most likely): 81 percent chance [+5% from yesterday]
The most likely scenario is that aftershocks will continue to decrease in frequency over the next 30 days, with no further earthquakes similarly sized to the M 6.4 that occurred on Jan. 7, 2020 (i.e., will be less than M 6.0). Some of these moderately sized aftershocks (M 5.0+) may cause localized damage, particularly in weak structures. Smaller magnitude earthquakes (M 3.0+), when at shallow depth, may be felt by people close to the epicenters.
Scenario Two (less likely): 16 percent chance [-5% from yesterday]
A less likely scenario is an earthquake occurring of similar size as the M 6.4 event. This is called a “doublet”: when two large earthquakes of similar size occur closely in time and location. This earthquake could cause additional damage in the same region and increases the number of aftershocks.
Scenario Three (least likely): 3 percent chance [0% from yesterday]
A much less likely scenario than the previous two scenarios is that recent earthquakes could trigger an earthquake significantly larger than the M 6.4 that occurred Jan. 7, 2020 (i.e., M 7.0 and above). While this is a small probability, if such an earthquake were to occur, it would have serious impacts on communities nearby. This sized earthquake would also trigger its own aftershock sequence, so the rate of small and moderate earthquakes would increase again.
Puerto Rico Earthquake Update - Sunday, January 12
Aftershock Forecast
The USGS aftershock forecast, updated on Jan. 12, indicates the likelihood of a M 6.0 or larger aftershock over the next 7 days is 11 percent. There is also a high likelihood of M 3.0+ aftershocks in the coming week; these M 3.0+ quakes may be felt near the epicenters. The rate of aftershocks will continue to decline over time. A large aftershock or new mainshock would, once again, increase the frequency and magnitude of aftershocks. Estimates for other magnitude ranges and time periods can be found in the forecast.
30-Day Aftershock Scenarios (Revised: Jan 12; English | Spanish)
Based on our aftershock forecasts, USGS has modeled three possible scenarios for this earthquake sequence as it evolves over the next month. These scenarios represent what could happen from January 12 to February 12, 2020. Only one of these scenarios will occur. The earthquakes in these scenarios would occur in the areas near where aftershocks are happening now. Regardless of scenario, earthquakes will continue to occur for days, months, or potentially years to come. It is very unlikely the aftershocks will cease completely within the next month.
Scenario One (most likely): 76 percent chance
The most likely scenario is that aftershocks will continue to decrease in frequency over the next 30 days, with no further earthquakes similarly sized to the M 6.4 that occurred on Jan. 7, 2020 (i.e., will be less than M 6.0). Some of these moderately sized aftershocks (M 5.0+) may cause localized damage, particularly in weak structures. Smaller magnitude earthquakes (M 3.0+), when at shallow depth, may be felt by people close to the epicenters.
Scenario Two (less likely): 21 percent chance
A less likely scenario is an earthquake occurring of similar size as the M 6.4 event. This is called a “doublet”: when two large earthquakes of similar size occur closely in time and location. This earthquake could cause additional damage in the same region and increases the number of aftershocks.
Scenario Three (least likely): 3 percent chance
A much less likely scenario than the previous two scenarios is that recent earthquakes could trigger an earthquake significantly larger than the M 6.4 that occurred Jan. 7, 2020 (i.e., M 7.0 and above). While this is a small probability, if such an earthquake were to occur, it would have serious impacts on communities nearby. This sized earthquake would also trigger its own aftershock sequence, so the rate of small and moderate earthquakes would increase again.
Morning Update on January 11
Aftershock Forecast
The USGS aftershock forecast, updated on Jan. 11, indicates the likelihood of a M 6.0 or larger aftershock over the next 7 days is 12 percent. There is also a high likelihood of M 3.0+ aftershocks in the coming week; these M 3.0+ quakes may be felt near the epicenters. The rate of aftershocks will continue to decline over time. A large aftershock or new mainshock would, once again, increase the frequency and magnitude of aftershocks. Estimates for other magnitude ranges and time periods can be found in the forecast.
30-Day Aftershock Scenarios (Revised: Jan 11; Spanish-language version)
Based on our aftershock forecasts, USGS has modeled three possible scenarios for this earthquake sequence as it evolves over the next month. These scenarios represent what could happen from January 11 to February 11, 2020. Only one of these scenarios will occur. The earthquakes in these scenarios would occur in the areas near where aftershocks are happening now. Regardless of scenario, earthquakes will continue to occur for days, months, or potentially years to come. It is very unlikely the aftershocks will cease completely within the next month.
Scenario One (most likely): 75 percent within the next 30 days
The most likely scenario is that aftershocks will continue to decrease in frequency over the next 30 days, with no further earthquakes similarly sized to the M 6.4 that occurred on Jan. 7, 2020 (i.e., will be less than M 6.0). Some of these moderately sized aftershocks (M 5.0+) may cause localized damage, particularly in weak structures. Smaller magnitude earthquakes (M 3.0+), when at shallow depth, may be felt by people close to the epicenters.
Scenario Two (less likely): 22 percent within the next 30 days
A less likely scenario is an earthquake occurring of similar size as the M 6.4 event. This is called a “doublet”: when two large earthquakes of similar size occur closely in time and location. This earthquake could cause additional damage in the same region and increases the number of aftershocks.
Scenario Three (least likely): 3 percent within the next 30 days
A much less likely scenario than the previous two scenarios is that recent earthquakes could trigger an earthquake significantly larger than the M 6.4 that occurred Jan. 7, 2020 (i.e., M 7.0 and above). While this is a small probability, if such an earthquake were to occur, it would have serious impacts on communities nearby. This sized earthquake would also trigger its own aftershock sequence, so the rate of small and moderate earthquakes would increase again.
Afternoon Update on January 10
Photo (L-R) Jose Cancel of Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN), Alena Leeds of USGS and Javier Santiago of PRSN install a temporary seismometer at Sabana Yeguas in southwestern Puerto Rico on Jan. 10, 2020.
(Credit: Thomas Pratt, USGS. Public domain.)
Ongoing Research
USGS and Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) experts are on the ground today near the south coast of Puerto Rico, working quickly to install six sets of seismometers that will help seismologists better monitor earthquakes, document the strength of ground shaking, estimate potential earthquake damage, and forecast aftershocks. The seismometers -- solar-powered and ready to travel in suitcase-sized kits -- were sent from the USGS’ Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory to Puerto Rico on January 7, the same day a magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck the southwest part of the island, causing extensive damage.
The temporary seismometers will supplement information on real-time earth movement already being collected by the PRSN, a permanent array of instruments in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. USGS partners with the PRSN and the Puerto Rico Strong Motion Program at University of Puerto Rico Mayaguez to collect seismic data and monitor earthquakes in the region.
Aftershock Forecast
The forecast for Jan. 10 indicates the likelihood of large magnitude aftershocks continues to decrease as we move further away from the Jan. 7, 2020, M 6.4 earthquake. Over the next 7 days there is now only a 3 percent chance of one or more aftershocks larger than M 6.4. However, there is still a high likelihood of M 3.0+ aftershocks in the coming week; these M 3.0+ quakes may be felt near the epicenters. The rate of aftershocks will continue to decline over time. A large aftershock or new mainshock would, once again, increase the frequency and magnitude of aftershocks.
Since this series of events began in December 2019, more than 139 earthquakes M 3.0+ have occurred in this region, six of which were M 5.0+, including the largest M 6.4 event.
This earthquake sequence is consistent with expectations of seismicity in the region. Historically the region has seen moderate seismicity, but Puerto Rico is tectonically active, and infrequent naturally occurring large earthquakes are expected. Before this sequence, within the last 50 years and within 31 miles of the M 6.4 quake’s epicenter, there have been 10 earthquakes M 4.0+. Historical seismicity in the region can be searched here.
View the USGS aftershock forecast here.
The figure above shows the distribution of seismicity southwest of Puerto Rico in December 2019 and January 2020. Earthquake symbols are sized by magnitude and colored according to the time of the earthquake relative to December 28, 2019.
(Public domain.)
Afternoon Update on January 9
Damaging earthquakes, like the ones in Puerto Rico, can be unsettling, destructive, and often tragic to the communities they affect. This is why the USGS continues to work diligently toward improving public safety by providing emergency responders and others with the scientific resources they need to better respond to ongoing hazards.
Here is the latest aftershock forecast for the M 6.4 that occurred January 7, 2020.
About Aftershock Scenarios
Based on our aftershock forecasts, USGS has modeled three possible scenarios for this earthquake sequence as it evolves over the next month. These scenarios represent what could happen from January 9 to February 9, 2020. Only one of these scenarios will occur. The earthquakes in these scenarios would occur in the areas near where aftershocks are happening now. Regardless of scenario, earthquakes will continue to occur for days, months, or potentially years to come. It is very unlikely the aftershocks will cease completely within the next month.
Scenario One (most likely): 84 percent within the next 30 days
The most likely scenario is that aftershocks will continue to decrease in frequency over the next 30 days, with no further earthquakes similarly sized to the M 6.4 that occurred on Jan. 7, 2020 (i.e., will be less than M 6.0). Some of these moderately sized aftershocks (M 5.0+) may cause localized damage, particularly in weak structures. Smaller magnitude earthquakes (M 3.0+), when at shallow depth, may be felt by people close to the epicenters.
Scenario Two (less likely): 14 percent within the next 30 days
A less likely scenario is an earthquake occurring of similar size as the M 6.4 event. This is called a “doublet”: when two large earthquakes of similar size occur closely in time and location. This earthquake could cause additional damage in the same region and increases the number of aftershocks.
Scenario Three (least likely): 2 percent within the next 30 days
A much less likely scenario than the previous two scenarios is that recent earthquakes could trigger an earthquake significantly larger than the M 6.4 that occurred Jan. 7, 2020 (i.e., M 7.0 and above). While this is a small probability, if such an earthquake were to occur, it would have serious impacts on communities nearby. This sized earthquake would also trigger its own aftershock sequence, so the rate of small and moderate earthquakes would increase again.
Afternoon Update on January 8
Timeline of recent earthquake sequence in Puerto Rico during December 2019 (weeks 49-52) and early January 2020 (weeks 1-2). Each symbol represents an earthquake sized by magnitude.
(Public domain.)
Aftershock Forecast
Today's forecast [as of 03:24:26 EST] estimates that over the next 1 Week there is a 4 percent chance of one or more aftershocks that are larger than magnitude 6.4. It is highly likely that there will be many smaller earthquakes (M>3) over the next 1 Week. Magnitude 3 and above events are large enough to be felt near the epicenter. The rate of aftershocks will decline over time, but a large aftershock can increase the numbers again, temporarily.
Our forecasts change as time passes due to decline in the frequency of aftershocks, larger aftershocks that may trigger further earthquakes, and changes in forecast modeling based on the data collected for this earthquake sequence.
Afternoon Update on January 7
The USGS National Earthquake Information Center is preparing to deploy six portable seismometers to Puerto Rico to supplement the seismometers already part of the Puerto Rico Seismic Network. These seismometers, which will be used to help better monitor earthquakes in this area, may be operational by the end of this week. Observations from seismic monitoring equipment will improve our ability to characterize and forecast earthquakes which will help protect lives and property. USGS works in partnership with the PRSN and the Puerto Rico Strong Motion Program at University of Puerto Rico Mayaguez to collect seismic data and monitor earthquakes in the region.
"After the devastating Hurricane Maria occurred in Puerto Rico, the federal government invested in rebuilding damaged seismic stations in the region," said USGS Director Jim Reilly. “These stations have made it possible for the USGS and our partners at the Puerto Rico Seismic Network to provide more accurate and rapid information about the earthquakes and their possible impacts along with better forecasts of potentially damaging aftershocks.”
Since the M 4.7 event on December 28, 2019, over 500 M 2+ earthquakes have occurred in this region (as of 2PM EST, 01/07/20), 32 of which were M 4+, including the January 6th M 5.8 and the M 6.4 event on January 7th and its aftershocks.
Aftershock Forecast
Earthquake forecasts are created using a statistical analysis based on past earthquakes and are presented in terms of probabilities of earthquakes of a given size occurring. The current forecast, issued at 15:24 eastern on Jan 7, 2020, estimates that over the next 1 Week there is a 7 percent chance of one or more aftershocks that are larger than magnitude 6.4. It is highly likely that there will be many smaller earthquakes (M>3) over the next 1 Week. Magnitude 3 and above events are large enough to be felt near the epicenter. The rate of aftershocks will decline over time, but a large aftershock can increase the numbers again, temporarily. This forecast may change as the earthquake sequence continues to develop.
Two portable sensors: a strong motion sensor (to record strong shaking that can be felt) and a broadband sensor (to record weak motion for detecting small earthquakes) buried into the ground to detect earthquakes. These stations can be quickly deployed and send real-time data back to the USGS via cellular telemetry immediately after they are installed. This photo was taken in Ridgecrest, CA.
(Public domain.)
The map above shows seismicity (orange circles) and seismic monitoring stations (triangles). Seismic stations that have been recently upgraded are emphasized in red.
(Public domain.)
Morning Update on January 7
On Jan. 7, a magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck the region at 4:24 am local time (08:24:26 UTC). Significant damage is possible. Over the past several weeks, hundreds of small earthquakes have occurred in the Puerto Rico region, beginning in earnest with a M 4.7 earthquake late on December 28 and a M 5.0 event a few hours.
The magnitude 6.4 earthquake was widely felt. According to ShakeMap, strong to very strong shaking occurred across parts of Southern Puerto Rico closest to the event and moderate shaking occurred across the rest of the island. The NOAA Tsunami Warning System states no tsunami warning or advisory. The USGS summary page on this earthquake includes an aftershock forecast. Aftershocks will continue near the mainshock.
Over the past several weeks, hundreds of small earthquakes have occurred in this same region, beginning in earnest with a M 4.7 earthquake late on December 28 and a M 5.0 event a few hours later. Since the M 4.7 event, over 400 M 2+ earthquakes have occurred in this region, ten of which were M 4+, including today’s M 6.4 event and yesterday's 5.8 quake. The preliminary location of today's 6.4 earthquake is within about 7.5 miles (12 km) of the January 6, 2020, M 5.8 earthquake. The proximity of these events to Puerto Rico, and their shallow depth, mean that dozens of these events have been felt on land, though with the exception of the latest two earthquakes, the M 6.4 and the M 5.8, none are likely to have caused significant damage.
The January 6 and 7, 2020, M 5.8 and M 6.4 earthquakes offshore of southwest Puerto Rico occurred as the result of oblique strike slip faulting at shallow depth. At the location of this event, the North America plate converges with the Caribbean plate at a rate of about 20 mm/yr towards the west-southwest. The location and style of faulting for the event is consistent with an intraplate tectonic setting within the upper crust of the Caribbean plate, rather than on the plate boundary between the two plates.
Fault traces are shown as lines with the following descriptions: barbed=thrust fault; solid=strike-slip fault with arrows showing relative direction of motion; black and white=normal fault. Faults outlined in red have a potential to generate a large earthquake. The arrow at the top right corner shows the direction of the North American plate motion relative to the Caribbean plate. All red stars with a date before the 20th century show the intensity center (MI) for that earthquake. The red star with a red ellipse shows the general location of several 17th century earthquakes with sparse felt data. Stars with 20th and 21st century years are earthquake epicenters located using instrument data. Years in boxes next to red outlines are reoccurrence rates. Red question marks indicate unknown reoccurrence rates for those respective faults. Those parts of the subduction zone not outlined by red are not expected to generate large earthquakes
(Public domain.)
Tectonics in Puerto Rico are dominated by the convergence between the North America and Caribbean plates, with the island being squeezed between the two. To the north of Puerto Rico, North America subducts beneath the Caribbean plate along the Puerto Rico trench. To the south of the island, and south of today’s earthquake, Caribbean plate upper crust subducts beneath Puerto Rico at the Muertos Trough. The January 6 earthquake, and other recent nearby events, are occurring in the offshore deformation zone bound by the Punta Montalva Fault on land and the Guayanilla Canyon offshore.
Visit the USGS event page for more information. For estimates of casualties and damage, visit the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) website. If you felt any of these earthquakes, report your experience on the “USGS Did You Feel It?” website for this event.
USGS scientists expect that this event will trigger aftershocks, but these will decrease in frequency over time. You can view the aftershock forecast here.
The USGS operates a 24/7 National Earthquake Information Center in Colorado that can be reached for more information at 303-273-8500. Learn more about the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program.