Ecological Niche Models, also called Species Distribution Models (SDMs), predict where a species can exist based on the environmental conditions (niches) that create suitable habitat. In addition to environmental and climatic variables, the models can incorporate species needs and can offer predictions for how those needs might influence species movement based on various climate scenarios. Niche models are an important tool for land and wildlife managers, but they have limitations based on what variables are included. 

“There are important implications for what a model does or doesn’t capture,” says Laura Thompson, Research Ecologist with the USGS National Climate Adaptation Science Center and co-author on the article. “If you go for a broad view to get a larger idea of a region, you might not capture micro-refugia or habitats that species can occupy, and it may seem like they move at a different speed than predicted because the spatial scale used in your study didn't really capture those little habitats that species could occupy.” 

The authors compared predictions made from climatic niche models to over 9,500 actual observations of how species ranges have shifted across the land and sea. They found that the models do a good job of predicting the latitudinal direction of movement, especially for marine species, but they aren’t tracking the actual pace well, with the speed of shifts occurring four times faster than the models predicted. In practice, this means that managers have less time than predicted to account for shifting species ranges and the challenges that come with that. 

As species shift where they live, the services they provide to local ecosystems also shift. These services include opportunities for outdoor recreation, such as hunting and fishing, as well as more general benefits like clean streams, pest control, and food security.   

“I think why we're so interested in range shifts is because there are many implications for, not only conservation, but also species interaction, and the cultural implications of what people expect to be there” says Thompson, “If you go to Joshua Tree National Park and there are no Joshua Trees, that becomes a major issue for the identity of the place itself and presents a major management challenge.” 

Comparing models to observable movement patterns can help scientists build more accurate models over time and can help managers better understand and deal with their limitations.  

“Species are going to continue to shift as the climate warms, and it's going to vary greatly from place to place,” reflects Thompson, “as we build better tools, we're able to better predict what's on the horizon so managers can prepare for that in the best possible way.”  

The paper, “Species range shifts often speed ahead of their modeled climatic niches” was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on March 30, 2026. The paper was co-authored by Brunno F. Oliveira, Romain Bertrand, Malin L. Pinsky, Nicolas Casajus, Barrett W. Wolfe, Brett R. Scheffers, Fabricio Villalobos, Gaël Grenouillet, Gretta T. Pecl, I-Ching Chen, J. Alex Baecher, Jake A. Lawlor, Jennifer Sunday, Jérôme Murienne, Jonathan Rolland, Lesley T. Lancaster, Madeleine A. Rubenstein, Nikki A. Moore, R. M. W. J. Bandara, Sarah E. Diamond, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Jonathan Lenoir, and Lise Comte.