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A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

January 1, 2014

We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

Publication Year 2014
Title A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide
DOI 10.1007/s11111-014-0209-0
Authors David López-Carr, Narcisa G. Pricope, Juliann E. Aukema, Marta M. Jankowska, Christopher C. Funk, Gregory J. Husak, Joel C. Michaelsen
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Population and Environment
Index ID 70155266
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center