Appendix A: Modeling appendix for the Northwestern and Southwestern pond turtle (Actinemys marmorata , Actinemys pallida )

To predict future status of the northwestern pond turtle (Actinemys marmorata) and southwestern pond turtle (Actinemys pallida) species, we developed a stochastic stage-based matrix population model to simulate future population conditions. We constructed a demographic population viability analysis for each species based on a post-breeding, single sex, stage-based life history diagram elicited from taxa experts and derived from relevant literature. Demographic parameters were based on estimates from published literature and data provided to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Using the most recent observations of turtles, available habitat, local abundances, and current threat conditions, we calculated spatially explicit initial abundances to initialize our stochastic projection. In order to incorporate multiple types of uncertainty (ecological, parametric, temporal), we built three embedded simulation loops within the simulation model. Representing ecological uncertainty, species status was projected into the future using multiple plausible future scenarios based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 8.5) and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 2, 5) to reflect plausible alternative future trajectories of relevant environmental conditions. Parametric uncertainty was
included for survival estimates of all life stages due the inconsistency of estimates across the species’ range. Temporal variability or environmental stochasticity was included in the form of randomized variation from the mean demographic parameter values in each year of the approximately 80-year simulation. 

The model output included probability of extinction and estimated abundance through 2100 for each unique Analysis Unit (AU) and for the full geographic range of the species except populations in the state of Washington. The AUs in Washington are conservation dependent and sustained by a head-starting and reintroduction program. Thus, the population dynamics do not match our model for the rest of the range and therefore the Washington AUs were included in this projection modeling effort. There is already pre-existing, detailed PVA for these specific populations (Pramuk et al. 2012, p.41-60), and the Status assessment report can use those results for inference about future status. We discuss the results of Pramuk et al. (2012, p.41-61) alongside our own. Probability of extinction was overall higher for the southwestern pond turtle as compared to the northwestern species and population growth rates were strongly negative for both species (approximately -3% annually for all AUs for all scenarios). This appendix is organized into three primary sections: 1) a description of the life history, the core population dynamics model, and demographic parameters, 2) a description of methods for establishing initial abundances of the populations for the future viability modeling, and 3) a description of the methods for modeling effects of various threats on future demographic rates and the results of future conditions scenarios.