Application of a data-limited stock assessment model to understand the historical population of cisco in Lake Erie

Historically, cisco (Coregonus artedi) supported one of the largest commercial fisheries in Lake Erie with over 25 million kilograms landed in a single year during the fisheries’ peak in 1912. Like many other coregonines in the Laurentian Great Lakes, the Lake Erie cisco population eventually collapsed and is now considered extirpated. Management interest in restoring coregonine abundance and diversity across the Great Lakes motivated the development of a multi-agency, science-based framework aimed at restoring or enhancing populations. As part of that framework, we applied a data-limited model (depletion-based stock reduction analysis) to a reconstructed catch series to estimate historical levels of abundance of cisco in Lake Erie. Estimated historical carrying capacity was 171 million kilograms (66.5 kg/ha) and estimated annual exploitation was as high as 70 %. Model projections suggested the population should have rebuilt following a fishery collapse in 1925; however, the fishery remained depressed and cisco disappeared from Lake Erie despite the end of targeted exploitation in 1965. Other factors, such as habitat degradation and invasive species, are believed to have played a part in impeding recovery of cisco. The results of this study could be used in setting potential restoration targets for Lake Erie cisco given current conditions. The likelihood of achieving recovery targets based on historical population size will be dependent on the suitability of current conditions for sustaining the population.