Application of landscape models to alternative futures analyses

Scientists and environmental managers alike are concerned about broadscale changes in land use and landscape pattern and their cumulative impact on environmental and economic end points, such as water quality and quantity, species habitat, productivity, erosion potential, recreational value, and overall ecological health (Rapport et al., 1998). They also are interested in predicting short-and long-term future impacts on ecological goods and services based on current land management policies and decisions (Steinitz, 1996). Because we have the means to adjust land management policies, it is worthwhile to develop approaches that can predict the consequences (alternative futures) of different land management policies for different environmental end points. This type of analysis can, for example, allow decision makers in resource conservation and restoration programs to estimate how they can get the most ecological benefit for the least cost