Is April to July runoff really decreasing in the Western United States?

Global warming has been the topic of a great deal of heated discussion and debate in recent years, both in the lay press and in scientific journals. The debate is about whether we are beginning to detect signs of a buildup of greenhouse gases on a global scale. A major part of the debate concerns the possible effects on climate and on the future availability of water resources. The ongoing drought in California has added impetus to the debate, serving notice of the serious consequences of any prolonged decrease in the availability of adequate water supplies. This paper has three primary objectives: (1) To evaluate the ramifications of using fractional runoff rather than total runoff to define trends in runoff; (2) to analyze additional streamflow data for the presence and extent of trends in annual and seasonal runoff volume for the conterminous Western United States; and (3) to examine the influence of the current California drought on indicators of trend.