Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Bayesian modeling can facilitate adaptive management in restoration

October 28, 2021

There is an urgent need for near-term predictions of ecological restoration outcomes despite imperfect knowledge of ecosystems. Restoration outcomes are always uncertain but integrating Bayesian modeling into the process of adaptive management allows researchers and practitioners to explicitly incorporate prior knowledge of ecosystems into future predictions. Although barriers exist, employing qualitative expert knowledge and previous case studies can help narrow the range of uncertainty in forecasts. Software and processes that allow for repeatable methodologies can help bridge the existing gap between theory and application of Bayesian methods in adaptive management.

Publication Year 2022
Title Bayesian modeling can facilitate adaptive management in restoration
DOI 10.1111/rec.13596
Authors Cara Applestein, T. Trevor Caughlin, Matthew Germino
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Restoration Ecology
Index ID 70232173
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center