I am a quantitative ecologist using Bayesian methods to understand landscape recovery after fire in sagebrush-steppe ecosystems.
Throughout my career, I've sought to bridge the gap between restoration practitioners and scientists by working closely with land managers to provide science and predictive models useful for understanding the efficacy of restoration practices. Before working for USGS, I was a conservation project manager for the Center for Natural Land Management where I worked closely with land managers to research the efficacy of different seeding methods and prescribed fire regimes for restoring wet prairie in western Washington. My current research focuses on understanding weather effects on post-fire vegetation recovery, understanding mechanisms of invasion, and determining the utility of remote sensing products for land management decision.
Professional Experience
2013-2016: Center for Natural Land Management, Conservation Project Manager, Temecula, CA
Education and Certifications
Ph.D., Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, Boise State University (2023)
M.S., Conservation Biology, University of Maryland (2012)
B.S., Environmental Science, Dickinson College, Carlisle, PA (2011)
Science and Products
If you are unable to access or download a product, email fresc_outreach@usgs.gov a request, including the full citation, or call (541) 750-1030.
Satellite-derived plant cover maps vary in performance depending on version and product
Post-fire seed dispersal of a wind-dispersed shrub declined with distance to seed source, yet had high levels of unexplained variation
Relationship of greater sage-grouse to natural and assisted recovery of key vegetation types following wildfire: Insights from scat
How do accuracy and model agreement vary with versioning, scale, and landscape heterogeneity for satellite-derived vegetation maps in sagebrush steppe?
Interannual variation in climate contributes to contingency in post-fire restoration outcomes in seeded sagebrush steppe
Greater sage-grouse respond positively to intensive post-fire restoration treatments
Monitoring for adaptive management of burned sagebrush-steppe rangelands: addressing variability and uncertainty on the 2015 Soda Megafire
Patterns of post-fire invasion of semiarid shrub-steppe reveals a diversity of invasion niches within an exotic annual grass community
Bayesian modeling can facilitate adaptive management in restoration
Weather affects post‐fire recovery of sagebrush‐steppe communities and model transferability among sites
Weather and distance to fire refugia limit landscape‐level occurrence of fungal disease in an exotic annual grass
Detecting shrub recovery in sagebrush steppe: Comparing Landsat-derived maps with field data on historical wildfires
Non-USGS Publications**
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Plant-Soil-Environment Laboratory (FRESC)
Understanding the Sagebrush Steppe’s Threshold for Transitions Through Resistance and Resilience Models
If you are unable to access or download a product, email fresc_outreach@usgs.gov a request, including the full citation, or call (541) 750-1030.
Modelled functional group vegetation cover from 2016 to 2020 on the Soda Wildfire
Post-fire habitat associations of greater sage-grouse in Idaho and Oregon, 2016-2018
Presence and cover of exotic annual and perennial grass species during five years post-fire on the Soda Wildfire
Head smut infections on cheatgrass cover in the first four years after the 2015 Soda Wildfire
To request an interview, contact fresc_outreach@usgs.gov or call (541) 750-1030.
Science and Products
- Publications
If you are unable to access or download a product, email fresc_outreach@usgs.gov a request, including the full citation, or call (541) 750-1030.
Filter Total Items: 18Satellite-derived plant cover maps vary in performance depending on version and product
Understanding the accuracy and appropriate application scale of satellite-derived maps of vegetation cover is essential for effective management of the vast, remote rangelands of the world. However, the underlying models are updated frequently and may combine with rapidly changing vegetation conditions to cause variations in accuracy and precision over time. We sought to assess how model performanAuthorsCara Applestein, Matthew GerminoPost-fire seed dispersal of a wind-dispersed shrub declined with distance to seed source, yet had high levels of unexplained variation
Plant-population recovery across large disturbance areas is often seed-limited. An understanding of seed dispersal patterns is fundamental for determining natural-regeneration potential. However, forecasting seed dispersal rates across heterogeneous landscapes remains a challenge. Our objectives were to determine (i) the landscape patterning of post-disturbance seed dispersal, and underlying sourcAuthorsCara Applestein, Trevor Caughlin, Matthew GerminoRelationship of greater sage-grouse to natural and assisted recovery of key vegetation types following wildfire: Insights from scat
Megafires are creating severe conservation problems worldwide for wildlife that have obligate dependencies on plant species that are foundational but fire-intolerant. Wildfire-induced loss of native perennials and increases in exotic annual grasses threaten greater sage-grouse (GRSG, Centrocercus urophasianus) in its sagebrush steppe habitat in western North America. Post-fire restoration using heAuthorsMatthew Germino, Christopher R. Anthony, Chad Raymond Kluender, Ethan A. Ellsworth, Ann M. Moser, Cara Applestein, Matthew FiskHow do accuracy and model agreement vary with versioning, scale, and landscape heterogeneity for satellite-derived vegetation maps in sagebrush steppe?
Maps of the distribution and abundance of dominant plants derived from satellite data are essential for ecological research and management, particularly in the vast semiarid shrub-steppe. Appropriate application of these maps requires an understanding of model accuracy and precision, and how it might vary across space, time, and different vegetation types. For a 113 k Ha burn area, we compared modAuthorsCara Applestein, Matthew J. GerminoInterannual variation in climate contributes to contingency in post-fire restoration outcomes in seeded sagebrush steppe
Interannual variation, especially weather, is an often-cited reason for restoration “failures”; yet its importance is difficult to experimentally isolate across broad spatiotemporal extents, due to correlations between weather and site characteristics. We examined post-fire treatments within sagebrush-steppe ecosystems to ask: (1) Is weather following seeding efforts a primary reason why restoratiAuthorsAllison Barbara Simler-Williamson, Cara Applestein, Matthew GerminoGreater sage-grouse respond positively to intensive post-fire restoration treatments
Habitat loss is the most prevalent threat to biodiversity in North America. One of the most threatened landscapes in the United States is the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem, much of which has been fragmented or converted to non-native grasslands via the cheatgrass-fire cycle. Like many sagebrush obligates, greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) depend upon sagebrush for food and covAuthorsSharon Poessel, David M Barnard, Cara Applestein, Matthew Germino, Ethan A. Ellsworth, Donald J. Major, Ann Moser, Todd E. KatznerMonitoring for adaptive management of burned sagebrush-steppe rangelands: addressing variability and uncertainty on the 2015 Soda Megafire
• Use of adaptive management supported by robust monitoring is vital to solving severe rangeland problems, such as the exotic annual grass invasion and fire cycle in sagebrush-steppe rangelands.• Uncertainty in post-fire plant-community composition and plant response to treatments poses a challenge to land management and research but can be addressed with a high density of observations over shortAuthorsMatthew Germino, Peter Torma, Matthew Fisk, Cara ApplesteinPatterns of post-fire invasion of semiarid shrub-steppe reveals a diversity of invasion niches within an exotic annual grass community
Disturbances such as fire provide an opportunity for invasive plant species to exploit newly created niche space. Whether initial invaders facilitate, compete with, or do not affect later invaders is important to determine in communities affected by multiple invaders. This analysis focuses on the newer invaders Taeniatherum caput-medusae (medusahead) and Ventenata dubia (ventenata) in sagebrush-stAuthorsCara Applestein, Matthew GerminoBayesian modeling can facilitate adaptive management in restoration
There is an urgent need for near-term predictions of ecological restoration outcomes despite imperfect knowledge of ecosystems. Restoration outcomes are always uncertain but integrating Bayesian modeling into the process of adaptive management allows researchers and practitioners to explicitly incorporate prior knowledge of ecosystems into future predictions. Although barriers exist, employing quaAuthorsCara Applestein, T. Trevor Caughlin, Matthew GerminoWeather affects post‐fire recovery of sagebrush‐steppe communities and model transferability among sites
Altered climate, including weather extremes, can cause major shifts in vegetative recovery after disturbances. Predictive models that can identify the separate and combined temporal effects of disturbance and weather on plant communities and that are transferable among sites are needed to guide vulnerability assessments and management interventions. We asked how functional group abundance respondeAuthorsCara Applestein, Trevor Caughlin, Matthew GerminoWeather and distance to fire refugia limit landscape‐level occurrence of fungal disease in an exotic annual grass
The enemy release hypothesis proposes that invasion by exotic plant species is driven by their release from natural enemies (i.e. herbivores and pathogens) in their introduced ranges. However, in many cases, natural enemies, which may be introduced or managed to regulate invasive species, may fail to impact target host populations. Landscape heterogeneity, which can affect both the population dynaAuthorsCara Applestein, Allison Barbara Simler-Williamson, Matthew J. GerminoDetecting shrub recovery in sagebrush steppe: Comparing Landsat-derived maps with field data on historical wildfires
BackgroundThe need for basic information on spatial distribution and abundance of plant species for research and management in semiarid ecosystems is frequently unmet. This need is particularly acute in the large areas impacted by megafires in sagebrush steppe ecosystems, which require frequently updated information about increases in exotic annual invaders or recovery of desirable perennials. RemAuthorsCara Applestein, Matthew GerminoNon-USGS Publications**
Cara Applestein, Jonathan D. Bakker, Eric G. Delvin, Sarah T. Hamman "Evaluating Seeding Methods and Rates for Prairie Restoration," Natural Areas Journal, 38(5), 347-355, (1 October 2018)**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
- Science
Plant-Soil-Environment Laboratory (FRESC)
We produce basic and applied science needed to manage landscapes in ways that make them resistant and resilient to stressors such as wildfire, exotic plant invasions, drought, and temperature extremes. These stressors impact ecosystem productivity and functioning and pose costly risks to human health and safety in the western United States. We team with other state and federal agencies to find...Understanding the Sagebrush Steppe’s Threshold for Transitions Through Resistance and Resilience Models
We are investigating ecosystem transitions and thresholds in the sagebrush steppe, studying factors influencing the shift from native to invaded plant communities after disturbances like fire. Our research tests region-wide resistance and resilience models, focusing on real-world recovery patterns, pre-fire conditions, plant succession, and land management treatments. - Data
If you are unable to access or download a product, email fresc_outreach@usgs.gov a request, including the full citation, or call (541) 750-1030.
Modelled functional group vegetation cover from 2016 to 2020 on the Soda Wildfire
These rasters represent plant cover during each of the first five growing seasons after fire in the area burned in the 2015 Soda wildfire. Specifically included cover layers are annual herbaceous, perennial herbaceous, shrub, exotic annual grass, and bareground. Training data for each year was collected via grid-point intercept monitoring between April and August. Empirical Bayesian Kriging RegresPost-fire habitat associations of greater sage-grouse in Idaho and Oregon, 2016-2018
We investigated habitat selection by 28 male greater sage-grouse during each of three years (2016-2018) after a 113,000-ha wildfire in a sagebrush steppe ecosystem in Idaho and Oregon. During the study period, seeding and herbicide treatments were applied for habitat restoration. This dataset includes pre-fire land cover, post-fire vegetation, and post-fire treatment data within 500-m buffers of sPresence and cover of exotic annual and perennial grass species during five years post-fire on the Soda Wildfire
Data includes cover and presence (within microsites and 13 m radius plots) of three exotic annual grass, Bromus tectorum, Taeniatherum caput-medusae, and Ventenata dubia and presence (within microsites) of four perennial bunchgrass species (Agropyron cristatum, Pseudoroegneria spicata, Poa secunda, Elymus elymoides) within the first five years after the 2015 Soda wildfire. Additional landscape andHead smut infections on cheatgrass cover in the first four years after the 2015 Soda Wildfire
Data includes head smut infection level (caused by the fungal pathogen, Ustilago bullata) on cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and cheatgrass cover for plots measured annually during the first four years after the 2015 Soda wildfire. Additional landscape and weather covariates that are hypothesized to influence infection and host density are included. - News
To request an interview, contact fresc_outreach@usgs.gov or call (541) 750-1030.