Blanchard's cricket frogs (Acris blanchardi) have re-expanded northward since mid-2000s: Landscape predictors of occupancy

Blanchard's Cricket Frogs (Acris blanchardi) declined along their northern range edge in the upper Midwest in the mid-to late 1900s. The causes of these declines remain poorly understood, as does the current status of this species and their habitat requirements. In 2024, we revisited more than 300 locations previously sampled between 2003 and 2008 along this range edge in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois. We conducted roadside anuran call surveys at each site and extracted land cover information from the National Land Cover Database and a global stream layer. We developed a multi-species occupancy model, which included imperfect detection, species traits, and species associations, to test for changes in occupancy through time and determine whether environmental characteristics were associated with cricket frog presence. Blanchard's Cricket Frogs occupied more sites and occurred farther north in 2024 relative to the mid-2000s, suggesting a partial recolonization in the zone of previous decline. Forest, croplands, and latitude were negatively associated with cricket frog occupancy, whereas wetlands, river size, and development did not have strongly supported effects. Species associations implied that wetland permanence could have been an important determinant of occupancy, but we did not have this covariate information for many of our sites due to private ownership of surrounding lands. Causes of earlier declines remain largely unknown, and many previously occupied regions apparently remain devoid of cricket frogs. However, some populations have been expanding northward over the past two decades in the upper Midwest.