Catch rates for sturgeon chubs and sicklefin chubs in the Upper Missouri River 2004–2016 and correlations with biotic and abiotic variables

A multiweek standardized sampling regime during 2004–2016 in a 60-km reach of the Upper Missouri River assessed reproduction and catch rates for Sturgeon Chub Macrhybopsis gelida and Sicklefin Chub Macrhybopsis meeki. We sampled age-0 Macrhybopsis (primarily Sturgeon Chubs, but potentially including Sicklefin Chubs) all years to indicate successful reproduction, but noted an inverse correlation of catch per unit area (CPUA) with year. There was an inverse correlation for CPUA of age-1+ Sturgeon Chubs with year. There was no correlation for CPUA of age-1+ Sicklefin Chubs with year, but we noted a depression in CPUA during 2010 and 2012. The study reach includes restoration directives for federally endangered Pallid Sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus, with 245,000 hatchery-origin Pallid Sturgeon (HOPS) stocked since 1998 to supplement the declining wild stock. Pallid Sturgeon longer than 350 mm fork length transition to piscivory and are known to prey on Sturgeon Chubs and Sicklefin Chubs. We examined the hypothesis that mass additions of HOPS to the existing predator community could have population-level effects on the two chub species. Population modeling for the stocked HOPS through time yielded estimates of nearly 1,300 piscivore-sized HOPS in 2004, an increase to 26,000 HOPS in 2012, and decreasing numbers through 2016 (14,500). A negative correlation between HOPS abundance and age-0 Macrhybopsis CPUA had the best support among other candidate variables (discharge, water temperature, catch rates of Sauger Sander canadensis). We found an inverse correlation for CPUA of age-1+ Sturgeon Chubs and estimated HOPS abundance, and there was also evidence of an inverse association between age-1+ Sicklefin Chub CPUA and HOPS in the study area. Results for a 60-km reach of the Upper Missouri River suggest declining CPUA for age-0 Macrhybopsis and Sturgeon Chubs during 2004–2016 and modest recovery of Sicklefin Chubs after 2012. Although causative factors driving CPUA changes through time are not known, correlative analyses suggest that large numbers of HOPS added to the Missouri River predator community potentially influence CPUA of Sturgeon Chubs and Sicklefin Chubs in the study area. Testing this hypothesis will require expanded quantification of chub populations and HOPS numbers through time.