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Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

December 8, 2021

The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~Mw9.1 (required today) to Mw8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone.


Publication Year 2021
Title Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise
DOI 10.1038/s41467-021-27445-8
Authors Tina Dura, Andra Garner, Robert Weiss, Robert E. Kopp, Simon E. Engelhart, Robert C. Witter, Richard W. Briggs, Charles Mueller, Alan Nelson, Benjamin P. Horton
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Nature
Index ID 70231634
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Alaska Science Center Geology Minerals